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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian0 – 2Sturm GrazSturm Graz

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Heart Of Midlothian 0-2 Sturm Graz. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Heart Of Midlothian (48%), while victory for Sturm Graz was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (4.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz was played on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh. Before kick-off, our model gave Heart Of Midlothian a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sturm Graz 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

Heart Of Midlothian have won just one of their last 3 matches (0 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Sturm Graz have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Sturm Graz. On average Heart Of Midlothian score 1.00 and concede 2.33 goals per game; Sturm Graz score 3.40 and concede 1.80.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Heart Of Midlothian, 1 for Sturm Graz and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart Of Midlothian (Jul 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Heart Of Midlothian or draw" stands at 73%, "Sturm Graz or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

48%
Heart Of Midlothian (Win)
25%
Draw
27%
Sturm Graz (Win)

Double chance

73%
Heart Of Midlothian or draw
52%
Sturm Graz or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Heart Of Midlothian – Sturm Graz. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 Sturm Graz12.1%
Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Sturm Graz11.2%
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 Sturm Graz9.3%
Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 Sturm Graz8.6%
Heart Of Midlothian 0-1 Sturm Graz7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.62 goals in total (1.54 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.08 for Sturm Graz): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Heart Of Midlothian keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Sturm Graz in 21%.

Probability
Heart Of Midlothian expected goals1.54
Sturm Graz expected goals1.08
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet34%
Sturm Graz clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Heart Of Midlothian

DateOpponentScore
Jul 21, 2026Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League0-4L
Jul 17, 2026Rayo Vallecano · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jul 10, 2026Livingston · Club Friendlies1-2L

Sturm Graz

DateOpponentScore
Jul 21, 2026Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Champions League4-0W
Jul 8, 2026Kalsdorf · Club Friendlies4-1W
Jul 3, 2026FK Košice · Club Friendlies2-2D
Jun 30, 2026LNZ Cherkasy · Club Friendlies2-6L
Jun 26, 2026Mura · Club Friendlies5-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 21, 2026Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart Of MidlothianUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Heart Of Midlothian

No absences reported.

Sturm Graz

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Heart Of Midlothian a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sturm Graz 27%. Heart Of Midlothian are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 0-1 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz?

The probability that both Heart Of Midlothian and Sturm Graz score is 52%. Heart Of Midlothian have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sturm Graz 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.54 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.08 for Sturm Graz). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz played?

Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh.

What form are Heart Of Midlothian and Sturm Graz in?

Heart Of Midlothian: 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Sturm Graz: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Heart Of Midlothian and Sturm Graz?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Heart Of Midlothian, 1 for Sturm Graz and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart Of Midlothian (Jul 21, 2026).

What was the Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Heart Of Midlothian 0-2 Sturm Graz. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Heart Of Midlothian (48%), while victory for Sturm Graz was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (4.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.08 for Sturm Graz) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained