Championship· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Birmingham vs Millwall: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Birmingham 3-0 Millwall. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Birmingham was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
Match analysis
Birmingham vs Millwall was played on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (Championship, matchday 14). Venue: St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Birmingham a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Millwall 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), ahead of 1-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Birmingham have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Millwall have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Birmingham. On average Birmingham score 2.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Millwall score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Birmingham sit 6th with 23 points from 13 games, Millwall 12th with 18 points from 13. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Birmingham have averaged 1.85 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.73 for Millwall.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Birmingham, 2 for Millwall and 1 draw. The most recent ended Millwall 3-0 Birmingham (Feb 25, 2026). Birmingham out or doubtful: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, K. Lund, J. Beadle (doubtful) and D. Fry (doubtful). Millwall: T. Arconte (doubtful), C. De Norre, L. Jensen, M. Luongo (doubtful), F. Marschall, M. Servais and J. Metcalfe (suspended). In double chance terms, "Birmingham or draw" stands at 74%, "Millwall or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Birmingham are tipped by our AI model in this Birmingham v Millwall (49%). In the table, Birmingham (6th, 23 pts) host Millwall (12th, 18 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Birmingham – Millwall. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Birmingham 1-1 Millwall | 12.2% |
| Birmingham 1-0 Millwall | 11.9% |
| Birmingham 2-1 Millwall | 9.3% |
| Birmingham 2-0 Millwall | 9.0% |
| Birmingham 0-1 Millwall | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.55 goals in total (1.52 for Birmingham, 1.03 for Millwall): over 2.5 goals has a 47% probability and both teams to score 50%. Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Millwall in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Birmingham expected goals | 1.52 |
| Millwall expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 36% |
| Millwall clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Birmingham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Lincoln · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Millwall
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Lincoln · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 6 | 23 | 13 |
| Millwall | 12 | 18 | 13 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Millwall 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Birmingham 4-0 Millwall | Championship |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Millwall 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Birmingham 1-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Apr 18, 2023 | Millwall 0-1 Birmingham | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Birmingham
- M. Leonard (out)
- Paik Seung-Ho (out)
- K. Lund (out)
- J. Beadle (doubtful)
- D. Fry (doubtful)
Millwall
- T. Arconte (doubtful)
- C. De Norre (out)
- L. Jensen (out)
- M. Luongo (doubtful)
- F. Marschall (out)
- M. Servais (out)
- J. Metcalfe (suspended)
Most regular starters
Birmingham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cochrane5/5
- C. Klarer5/5
- J. Beadle5/5
- J. Stansfield5/5
- L. Millar5/5
- P. Neumann5/5
- T. Iwata5/5
- A. Priske4/5
- B. Osayi-Samuel4/5
- J. E. Solis Romero4/5
- P. Roberts3/5
Millwall
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Neghli5/5
- C. Taylor5/5
- D. Mazou-Sacko5/5
- J. Cooper5/5
- K. Lisbie5/5
- L. Dykes5/5
- J. Metcalfe4/5
- Z. Sturge4/5
- F. Marschall3/5
- T. Crama3/5
- L. Cundle2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Derby 0-4 NorwichNov 3, 2026
- QPR 1-1 BurnleyNov 3, 2026
- Portsmouth 3-1 SwanseaNov 3, 2026
- Watford 1-0 LincolnNov 3, 2026
- Preston 2-3 Sheffield UtdNov 3, 2026
- Blackburn 1-2 Stoke CityNov 3, 2026
- Charlton 0-1 BoltonNov 3, 2026
- West Brom 1-1 SouthamptonNov 3, 2026
- Wrexham 2-0 MiddlesbroughNov 4, 2026
- Cardiff 3-3 West HamNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Birmingham vs Millwall prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Birmingham a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Millwall 26%. Birmingham are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Birmingham vs Millwall?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.9%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 0-1 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The probability that both Birmingham and Millwall score is 50%. Birmingham have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Millwall 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The model expects 2.55 goals (1.52 for Birmingham, 1.03 for Millwall). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Birmingham vs Millwall played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 14. Venue: St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham.
What form are Birmingham and Millwall in?
Birmingham: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 2 conceded). Millwall: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Millwall?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Birmingham, 2 for Millwall and 1 draw. The most recent ended Millwall 3-0 Birmingham (Feb 25, 2026).
What was the Birmingham vs Millwall result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Birmingham 3-0 Millwall. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Birmingham was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
How is the Birmingham vs Millwall prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.52 for Birmingham, 1.03 for Millwall) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Birmingham predictions
- All Millwall predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology