Championship· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Wrexham 2-0 Middlesbrough. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Middlesbrough (57%), while victory for Wrexham was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.
Match analysis
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough was played on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (Championship, matchday 14). Venue: Racecourse Ground, Wrexham. Before kick-off, our model gave Wrexham a 20% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Middlesbrough 57%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (11.2%), ahead of 1-1 (10.9%) and 0-2 (10.2%).
Wrexham have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 14 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Middlesbrough. On average Wrexham score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Middlesbrough score 2.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Wrexham sit 19th with 14 points from 13 games, Middlesbrough 1st with 28 points from 13. 18 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Wrexham have averaged 1.22 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.44 for Middlesbrough.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 for Middlesbrough and 2 draws. The most recent ended Middlesbrough 1-0 Wrexham (Aug 7, 2026). Wrexham out or doubtful: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, S. Revan (doubtful) and J. Windass. Middlesbrough: A. Jones and R. Pukstas (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Wrexham or draw" stands at 43%, "Middlesbrough or draw" at 80% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Middlesbrough are tipped by our AI model in this Wrexham v Middlesbrough (57%). On recent form, Wrexham have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Middlesbrough are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Wrexham – Middlesbrough. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wrexham 0-1 Middlesbrough | 11.2% |
| Wrexham 1-1 Middlesbrough | 10.9% |
| Wrexham 0-2 Middlesbrough | 10.2% |
| Wrexham 1-2 Middlesbrough | 9.9% |
| Wrexham 0-0 Middlesbrough | 6.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.78 goals in total (0.97 for Wrexham, 1.81 for Middlesbrough): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 52%. Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Middlesbrough in 38%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Wrexham expected goals | 0.97 |
| Middlesbrough expected goals | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 16% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 38% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Wrexham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Blackburn · Championship | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Middlesbrough
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Bolton · Championship | 5-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 19 | 14 | 13 |
| Middlesbrough | 1 | 28 | 13 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Wrexham | EFL Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Wrexham 2-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-1 Wrexham | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Wrexham
- N. Broadhead (out)
- L. Cacace (out)
- S. Revan (doubtful)
- J. Windass (out)
Middlesbrough
- A. Jones (out)
- R. Pukstas (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Wrexham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Patterson5/5
- D. Hyam5/5
- K. Moore5/5
- B. Whiteman4/5
- C. Doyle4/5
- C. O'Hare4/5
- J. Ekomie4/5
- J. Worrall4/5
- I. Kabore3/5
- M. James3/5
- O. Rathbone2/5
Middlesbrough
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cozier-Duberry5/5
- A. Malanda5/5
- A. Morris5/5
- A. Phillips5/5
- C. Brittain5/5
- Neto Borges5/5
- R. McGree4/5
- R. Vitek4/5
- S. Berhalter4/5
- T. Conway4/5
- W. Lankshear4/5
Other matches in this competition
- Derby 0-4 NorwichNov 3, 2026
- QPR 1-1 BurnleyNov 3, 2026
- Portsmouth 3-1 SwanseaNov 3, 2026
- Watford 1-0 LincolnNov 3, 2026
- Preston 2-3 Sheffield UtdNov 3, 2026
- Blackburn 1-2 Stoke CityNov 3, 2026
- Birmingham 3-0 MillwallNov 3, 2026
- West Brom 1-1 SouthamptonNov 3, 2026
- Cardiff 3-3 West HamNov 4, 2026
- Bristol City 1-2 WolvesNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Wrexham vs Middlesbrough prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Wrexham a 20% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Middlesbrough 57%. Middlesbrough are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
0-1 (11.2%), followed by 1-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-0 (6.2%).
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
The probability that both Wrexham and Middlesbrough score is 52%. Wrexham have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Middlesbrough 38%.
How many goals should we expect in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
The model expects 2.78 goals (0.97 for Wrexham, 1.81 for Middlesbrough). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Wrexham vs Middlesbrough played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Championship, matchday 14. Venue: Racecourse Ground, Wrexham.
What form are Wrexham and Middlesbrough in?
Wrexham: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Middlesbrough: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Middlesbrough?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 for Middlesbrough and 2 draws. The most recent ended Middlesbrough 1-0 Wrexham (Aug 7, 2026).
What was the Wrexham vs Middlesbrough result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Wrexham 2-0 Middlesbrough. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Middlesbrough (57%), while victory for Wrexham was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.
How is the Wrexham vs Middlesbrough prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.97 for Wrexham, 1.81 for Middlesbrough) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Wrexham predictions
- All Middlesbrough predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology