Championship· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Portsmouth vs Swansea: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Portsmouth 3-1 Swansea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Swansea (39%), while victory for Portsmouth was rated at only 32%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
Match analysis
Portsmouth and Swansea met on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, a Championship, matchday 14 fixture. Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Before kick-off, our model gave Portsmouth a 32% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Swansea 39%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.6%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-0 (12.0%).
Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Swansea have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Portsmouth score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Swansea score 1.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Portsmouth sit 11th with 19 points from 13 games, Swansea 2nd with 26 points from 13. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Portsmouth have averaged 1.02 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.70 for Swansea.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Portsmouth, 2 for Swansea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea (Mar 10, 2026). Portsmouth out or doubtful: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky, C. Ogilvie and J. Swift. Swansea: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo, S. Eustaquio (doubtful) and M. Stamenic (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Portsmouth or draw" stands at 61%, "Swansea or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Portsmouth host Swansea in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (30%). In the table, Portsmouth (11th, 19 pts) host Swansea (2nd, 26 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Portsmouth – Swansea. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth 0-1 Swansea | 13.6% |
| Portsmouth 1-1 Swansea | 13.4% |
| Portsmouth 0-0 Swansea | 12.0% |
| Portsmouth 1-0 Swansea | 11.9% |
| Portsmouth 0-2 Swansea | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.99 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.13 for Swansea, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Swansea in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth expected goals | 0.99 |
| Swansea expected goals | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 32% |
| Swansea clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Portsmouth
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 3-2 | W |
Swansea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Blackburn · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 0-5 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 11 | 19 | 13 |
| Swansea | 2 | 26 | 13 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea | Championship |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Swansea 1-0 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Portsmouth 4-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Swansea 2-2 Portsmouth | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Portsmouth
- K. Anderson (out)
- B. Arthur (out)
- C. Bishop (out)
- L. Brooke-Smith (out)
- M. Kosznovszky (out)
- C. Ogilvie (out)
- J. Swift (out)
Swansea
- C. Burgess (out)
- Ronald (out)
- M. K. Yeo (out)
- S. Eustaquio (doubtful)
- M. Stamenic (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Portsmouth
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Kamara5/5
- A. Segecic5/5
- I. Mohamed5/5
- M. Dia5/5
- N. Schmid5/5
- R. Poole5/5
- J. Meghoma4/5
- M. Pack4/5
- R. Kavuma McQueen4/5
- Z. Swanson4/5
- Marezi3/5
Swansea
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Cabango5/5
- J. Tymon5/5
- L. Vigouroux5/5
- F. Lissah4/5
- J. Fulton4/5
- J. Opoku4/5
- S. Welsh4/5
- A. Idah3/5
- M. K. Yeo3/5
- M. Stamenic3/5
- M. Widell3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Derby 0-4 NorwichNov 3, 2026
- QPR 1-1 BurnleyNov 3, 2026
- Watford 1-0 LincolnNov 3, 2026
- Preston 2-3 Sheffield UtdNov 3, 2026
- Blackburn 1-2 Stoke CityNov 3, 2026
- Charlton 0-1 BoltonNov 3, 2026
- Birmingham 3-0 MillwallNov 3, 2026
- West Brom 1-1 SouthamptonNov 3, 2026
- Wrexham 2-0 MiddlesbroughNov 4, 2026
- Cardiff 3-3 West HamNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Portsmouth a 32% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Swansea 39%. Swansea are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
0-1 (13.6%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.9%) and 0-2 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
The probability that both Portsmouth and Swansea score is 43%. Portsmouth have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Swansea 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
The model expects 2.12 goals (0.99 for Portsmouth, 1.13 for Swansea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Portsmouth vs Swansea played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Championship, matchday 14. Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth.
What form are Portsmouth and Swansea in?
Portsmouth: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Swansea: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Swansea?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Portsmouth, 2 for Swansea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea (Mar 10, 2026).
What was the Portsmouth vs Swansea result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Portsmouth 3-1 Swansea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Swansea (39%), while victory for Portsmouth was rated at only 32%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
How is the Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.99 for Portsmouth, 1.13 for Swansea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Portsmouth predictions
- All Swansea predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology