Championship· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Watford vs Lincoln: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Watford 1-0 Lincoln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lincoln (37%), while victory for Watford was rated at only 35%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): correct.
Match analysis
Watford vs Lincoln was played on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (Championship, matchday 14). Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford. Before kick-off, our model gave Watford a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lincoln 37%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (13.3%), ahead of 0-1 (12.0%) and 1-0 (11.6%).
Watford have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 13. Lincoln have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 15. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Watford score 1.00 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Lincoln score 1.40 and concede 3.00. In the table, Watford sit 21st with 11 points from 13 games, Lincoln 16th with 15 points from 13. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Watford have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Lincoln.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Watford and Lincoln: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Watford out or doubtful: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia, N. Chikovani, J. Grieves and L. Kjerrumgaard (doubtful). Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia and E. Wheatley. In double chance terms, "Watford or draw" stands at 63%, "Lincoln or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Watford and Lincoln meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 29%). On recent form, Watford are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Lincoln have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. One to watch: Watford will be without M. Antonio and K. Baah.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Watford – Lincoln. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Watford 1-1 Lincoln | 13.3% |
| Watford 0-1 Lincoln | 12.0% |
| Watford 1-0 Lincoln | 11.6% |
| Watford 0-0 Lincoln | 10.4% |
| Watford 1-2 Lincoln | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.26 goals in total (1.11 for Watford, 1.15 for Lincoln): over 2.5 goals has a 39% probability and both teams to score 46%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Watford keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Lincoln in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Watford expected goals | 1.11 |
| Lincoln expected goals | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Watford clean sheet | 32% |
| Lincoln clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Watford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-5 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 0-4 | L |
Lincoln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Birmingham · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 14, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-6 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 21 | 11 | 13 |
| Lincoln | 16 | 15 | 13 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Watford and Lincoln: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Watford
- M. Antonio (out)
- K. Baah (out)
- E. Bove (out)
- S. Coulibaly (out)
- J. Ngakia (out)
- N. Chikovani (out)
- J. Grieves (out)
- L. Kjerrumgaard (doubtful)
Lincoln
- T. Darikwa (out)
- M. Melia (out)
- E. Wheatley (out)
Most regular starters
Watford
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Kayembe5/5
- F. Ravaglia5/5
- H. Kyprianou5/5
- M. Pollock5/5
- K. Keben4/5
- M. Boadu4/5
- I. Bravo3/5
- K. Diatta3/5
- L. Kjerrumgaard3/5
- B. Mlacic2/5
- J. Zemura2/5
Lincoln
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Elerewe5/5
- G. Wickens5/5
- S. Bradley5/5
- A. Reach4/5
- B. House4/5
- D. Jefferies4/5
- C. McGrandles3/5
- F. Draper3/5
- I. Varfolomeev3/5
- A. Coubis2/5
- M. Ladefoged2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Derby 0-4 NorwichNov 3, 2026
- QPR 1-1 BurnleyNov 3, 2026
- Portsmouth 3-1 SwanseaNov 3, 2026
- Preston 2-3 Sheffield UtdNov 3, 2026
- Blackburn 1-2 Stoke CityNov 3, 2026
- Charlton 0-1 BoltonNov 3, 2026
- Birmingham 3-0 MillwallNov 3, 2026
- West Brom 1-1 SouthamptonNov 3, 2026
- Wrexham 2-0 MiddlesbroughNov 4, 2026
- Cardiff 3-3 West HamNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Watford vs Lincoln prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Watford a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lincoln 37%. Lincoln are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Watford vs Lincoln?
1-1 (13.3%), followed by 0-1 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.4%) and 1-2 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Watford vs Lincoln?
The probability that both Watford and Lincoln score is 46%. Watford have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lincoln 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Watford vs Lincoln?
The model expects 2.26 goals (1.11 for Watford, 1.15 for Lincoln). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Watford vs Lincoln played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Championship, matchday 14. Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford.
What form are Watford and Lincoln in?
Watford: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded). Lincoln: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 15 conceded).
What was the Watford vs Lincoln result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Watford 1-0 Lincoln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lincoln (37%), while victory for Watford was rated at only 35%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): correct.
How is the Watford vs Lincoln prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.11 for Watford, 1.15 for Lincoln) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Watford predictions
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