Championship· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Derby vs Norwich: 0-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Derby 0-4 Norwich. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Norwich was the model's favourite outcome (46%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
Match analysis
Derby vs Norwich was played on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (Championship, matchday 14). Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Before kick-off, our model gave Derby a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Norwich 46%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.6%), ahead of 0-1 (12.1%) and 1-2 (9.0%).
Derby have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Norwich have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Norwich. On average Derby score 0.80 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Norwich score 1.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Derby sit 23rd with 7 points from 13 games, Norwich 15th with 15 points from 13. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Derby have averaged 1.01 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.05 for Norwich.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Derby, 3 for Norwich and 1 draw. The most recent ended Norwich 2-1 Derby (Apr 21, 2026). Derby out or doubtful: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson (suspended) and C. Taylor. Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, P. Mattsson (doubtful) and M. Toure. In double chance terms, "Derby or draw" stands at 55%, "Norwich or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Norwich to edge Derby (46% probability). On recent form, Derby have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Norwich have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 49%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Derby – Norwich. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Derby 1-1 Norwich | 12.6% |
| Derby 0-1 Norwich | 12.1% |
| Derby 1-2 Norwich | 9.0% |
| Derby 1-0 Norwich | 8.9% |
| Derby 0-2 Norwich | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.46 goals in total (1.04 for Derby, 1.42 for Norwich): over 2.5 goals has a 45% probability and both teams to score 49%. Derby keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Norwich in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Derby expected goals | 1.04 |
| Norwich expected goals | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Derby clean sheet | 24% |
| Norwich clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Norwich
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 23 | 7 | 13 |
| Norwich | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Norwich 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Derby 1-0 Norwich | Championship |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Norwich 1-1 Derby | Championship |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Derby 2-3 Norwich | Championship |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Derby 0-1 Norwich | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Derby
- P. Agyemang (out)
- E. Cashin (out)
- M. Clarke (out)
- C. Forsyth (out)
- S. Langas (out)
- D. Murkin (out)
- D. Sanderson (suspended)
- C. Taylor (out)
Norwich
- A. Ahmed (out)
- P. A. Diallo (out)
- G. Forsyth (out)
- P. Mattsson (doubtful)
- M. Toure (out)
Most regular starters
Derby
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Clark5/5
- C. Morris5/5
- D. Ozoh5/5
- R. Hedges5/5
- S. Szmodics5/5
- D. Sanderson4/5
- J. Ward4/5
- J. Vickers3/5
- M. Fuseini3/5
- R. Nyambe3/5
- A. Mowatt2/5
Norwich
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Brooks5/5
- J. Stacey5/5
- B. Chrisene4/5
- D. Grimshaw4/5
- J. Wright4/5
- M. Kvistgaarden4/5
- O. Schwartau4/5
- P. Mattsson4/5
- R. McConville4/5
- J. Cordoba3/5
- P. Maghoma3/5
Other matches in this competition
- QPR 1-1 BurnleyNov 3, 2026
- Portsmouth 3-1 SwanseaNov 3, 2026
- Watford 1-0 LincolnNov 3, 2026
- Preston 2-3 Sheffield UtdNov 3, 2026
- Blackburn 1-2 Stoke CityNov 3, 2026
- Charlton 0-1 BoltonNov 3, 2026
- Birmingham 3-0 MillwallNov 3, 2026
- West Brom 1-1 SouthamptonNov 3, 2026
- Wrexham 2-0 MiddlesbroughNov 4, 2026
- Cardiff 3-3 West HamNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Derby vs Norwich prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Derby a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Norwich 46%. Norwich are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Derby vs Norwich?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (12.1%), 1-2 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%) and 0-2 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Derby vs Norwich?
The probability that both Derby and Norwich score is 49%. Derby have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norwich 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Derby vs Norwich?
The model expects 2.46 goals (1.04 for Derby, 1.42 for Norwich). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Derby vs Norwich played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Championship, matchday 14. Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby.
What form are Derby and Norwich in?
Derby: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 11 conceded). Norwich: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Norwich?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Derby, 3 for Norwich and 1 draw. The most recent ended Norwich 2-1 Derby (Apr 21, 2026).
What was the Derby vs Norwich result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Derby 0-4 Norwich. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Norwich was the model's favourite outcome (46%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
How is the Derby vs Norwich prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.04 for Derby, 1.42 for Norwich) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Derby predictions
- All Norwich predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology