UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: NK Varazdin 3-2 FK Jablonec. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FK Jablonec (40%), while victory for NK Varazdin was rated at only 32%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.
Match analysis
NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec was played on Thursday, July 23, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Gradski stadion Varazdin, Varaždin. Before kick-off, our model gave NK Varazdin a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and FK Jablonec 40%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (13.1%), ahead of 0-1 (12.0%) and 1-0 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, NK Varazdin have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 6. FK Jablonec are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average NK Varazdin score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; FK Jablonec score 1.80 and concede 0.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between NK Varazdin and FK Jablonec: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "NK Varazdin or draw" stands at 60%, "FK Jablonec or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 72%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as NK Varazdin – FK Jablonec. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| NK Varazdin 1-1 FK Jablonec | 13.1% |
| NK Varazdin 0-1 FK Jablonec | 12.0% |
| NK Varazdin 1-0 FK Jablonec | 10.5% |
| NK Varazdin 0-0 FK Jablonec | 9.6% |
| NK Varazdin 1-2 FK Jablonec | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.34 goals in total (1.09 for NK Varazdin, 1.25 for FK Jablonec): over 2.5 goals has a 42% probability and both teams to score 47%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. NK Varazdin keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, FK Jablonec in 34%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| NK Varazdin expected goals | 1.09 |
| FK Jablonec expected goals | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| NK Varazdin clean sheet | 29% |
| FK Jablonec clean sheet | 34% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
NK Varazdin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Radomlje · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | CSKA 1948 · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 2, 2026 | FC Voluntari · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Križevci · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
FK Jablonec
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Pafos · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Ústí nad Labem · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Mlada Boleslav · Club Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Vlašim · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Bohemians 1905 · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between NK Varazdin and FK Jablonec: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
NK Varazdin
No absences reported.
FK Jablonec
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- FC Vaduz 4-0 Atlètic Club d'EscaldesJul 23, 2026
- FCSB 2-3 AudaJul 23, 2026
- Vojvodina 1-4 AjaxJul 23, 2026
- Aluminij 1-1 Dinamo TiranaJul 23, 2026
- Paks 1-2 PanathinaikosJul 23, 2026
- Polessya 3-3 FC CopenhagenJul 23, 2026
- Žilina 2-1 GKS KatowiceJul 23, 2026
- FC Lugano 1-0 DukagjiniJul 23, 2026
- Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 LudogoretsJul 23, 2026
- Borac Banja Luka 3-0 PetrocubJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave NK Varazdin a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and FK Jablonec 40%. FK Jablonec are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec?
1-1 (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 1-2 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec?
The probability that both NK Varazdin and FK Jablonec score is 47%. NK Varazdin have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FK Jablonec 34%.
How many goals should we expect in NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec?
The model expects 2.34 goals (1.09 for NK Varazdin, 1.25 for FK Jablonec). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Gradski stadion Varazdin, Varaždin.
What form are NK Varazdin and FK Jablonec in?
NK Varazdin: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). FK Jablonec: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: NK Varazdin 3-2 FK Jablonec. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FK Jablonec (40%), while victory for NK Varazdin was rated at only 32%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.
How is the NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.09 for NK Varazdin, 1.25 for FK Jablonec) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All NK Varazdin predictions
- All FK Jablonec predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology