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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

SutjeskaSutjeska1 – 2ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Sutjeska 1-2 ML Vitebsk. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sutjeska (45%), while victory for ML Vitebsk was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

Match analysis

Sutjeska and ML Vitebsk met on Thursday, July 30, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Stadion Gradski, Niksic. Before kick-off, our model gave Sutjeska a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and ML Vitebsk 29%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.1%).

Sutjeska have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, ML Vitebsk have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. ML Vitebsk therefore arrive in far better shape than Sutjeska. On average Sutjeska score 0.40 and concede 2.00 goals per game; ML Vitebsk score 2.00 and concede 1.60.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sutjeska, 1 for ML Vitebsk and 0 draws. The most recent ended ML Vitebsk 3-0 Sutjeska (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sutjeska or draw" stands at 71%, "ML Vitebsk or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

45%
Sutjeska (Win)
26%
Draw
29%
ML Vitebsk (Win)

Double chance

71%
Sutjeska or draw
55%
ML Vitebsk or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Sutjeska – ML Vitebsk. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Sutjeska 1-1 ML Vitebsk12.3%
Sutjeska 1-0 ML Vitebsk10.9%
Sutjeska 2-1 ML Vitebsk9.1%
Sutjeska 0-1 ML Vitebsk8.3%
Sutjeska 2-0 ML Vitebsk8.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.48 expected goals for Sutjeska and 1.13 for ML Vitebsk, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Sutjeska keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, ML Vitebsk in 23%.

Probability
Sutjeska expected goals1.48
ML Vitebsk expected goals1.13
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Sutjeska clean sheet32%
ML Vitebsk clean sheet23%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Sutjeska

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026ML Vitebsk · UEFA Conference League0-3L
Jul 15, 2026Kairat Almaty · UEFA Champions League0-2L
Jul 8, 2026Kairat Almaty · UEFA Champions League1-2L
Jul 1, 2026FK Sarajevo · Club Friendlies1-2L
Jun 24, 2026Mornar · Club Friendlies0-1L

ML Vitebsk

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026Sutjeska · UEFA Conference League3-0W
Jul 15, 2026Universitatea Craiova · UEFA Champions League0-1L
Jul 8, 2026Universitatea Craiova · UEFA Champions League1-4L
Mar 28, 2026Smorgon · Club Friendlies4-2W
Feb 14, 2026FC Isloch Minsk R. · Club Friendlies2-1W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2026ML Vitebsk 3-0 SutjeskaUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Sutjeska

No absences reported.

ML Vitebsk

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Sutjeska a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and ML Vitebsk 29%. Sutjeska are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk?

1-1 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (8.1%).

Will both teams score in Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk?

The probability that both Sutjeska and ML Vitebsk score is 52%. Sutjeska have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, ML Vitebsk 23%.

How many goals should we expect in Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk?

The model expects 2.61 goals (1.48 for Sutjeska, 1.13 for ML Vitebsk). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk played?

Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadion Gradski, Niksic.

What form are Sutjeska and ML Vitebsk in?

Sutjeska: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 10 conceded). ML Vitebsk: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Sutjeska and ML Vitebsk?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sutjeska, 1 for ML Vitebsk and 0 draws. The most recent ended ML Vitebsk 3-0 Sutjeska (Jul 23, 2026).

What was the Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Sutjeska 1-2 ML Vitebsk. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sutjeska (45%), while victory for ML Vitebsk was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

How is the Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.48 for Sutjeska, 1.13 for ML Vitebsk) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained