AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Algeria vs Zambia: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Algeria 3-1 Zambia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Algeria was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
Match analysis
Algeria vs Zambia was played on Friday, September 25, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Hocine Ait Ahmed Stadium, Tizi Ouzou. Before kick-off, our model gave Algeria a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Zambia 17%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.4%), ahead of 2-0 (12.0%) and 1-1 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Algeria have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Zambia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Algeria. On average Algeria score 1.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Zambia score 0.20 and concede 2.20.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Algeria, 2 for Zambia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Zambia 3-3 Algeria (Mar 25, 2021). In double chance terms, "Algeria or draw" stands at 83%, "Zambia or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Algeria are favourites for this Algeria v Zambia, with a 59% win probability from our model. On recent form, Algeria have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Zambia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Algeria – Zambia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Algeria 1-0 Zambia | 14.4% |
| Algeria 2-0 Zambia | 12.0% |
| Algeria 1-1 Zambia | 11.2% |
| Algeria 2-1 Zambia | 9.4% |
| Algeria 0-0 Zambia | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.45 goals in total (1.67 for Algeria, 0.78 for Zambia): over 2.5 goals has a 44% probability and both teams to score 44%. Algeria keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Zambia in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Algeria expected goals | 1.67 |
| Zambia expected goals | 0.78 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Algeria clean sheet | 46% |
| Zambia clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Algeria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-3 | D |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Jordan · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Bolivia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Zambia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-5 | L |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Morocco · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-3 | L |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Comoros · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-0 | D |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Mali · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 16, 2025 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2021 | Zambia 3-3 Algeria | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Nov 14, 2019 | Algeria 5-0 Zambia | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Sep 5, 2017 | Algeria 0-1 Zambia | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
| Sep 2, 2017 | Zambia 3-1 Algeria | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
Out and doubtful
Algeria
No absences reported.
Zambia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Algeria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Mandi5/5
- I. Maza5/5
- F. Chaibi4/5
- N. Bentaleb4/5
- R. Ait-Nouri4/5
- R. Belghali4/5
- R. Bensebaini4/5
- R. Mahrez4/5
- A. Gouiri3/5
- H. Boudaoui3/5
- L. Zidane3/5
Zambia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Chanda4/5
- W. Mwanza4/5
- B. Sakala3/5
- F. Sakala3/5
- K. Kangwa3/5
- L. Musonda3/5
- M. Banda3/5
- P. Daka3/5
- D. Simukonda2/5
- L. Banda2/5
- M. Chaiwa2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Niger 2-1 LesothoSep 25, 2026
- Malawi 2-1 South SudanSep 25, 2026
- Togo 1-0 BurundiSep 25, 2026
- Nigeria 2-1 MadagascarSep 25, 2026
- Gambia 2-1 SomaliaSep 25, 2026
- Rwanda 3-1 LiberiaSep 25, 2026
- Mali 3-1 Cape VerdeSep 25, 2026
- Egypt 0-0 AngolaSep 25, 2026
- Burkina Faso 1-1 BeninSep 25, 2026
- Morocco 2-0 GabonSep 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Algeria vs Zambia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Algeria a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Zambia 17%. Algeria are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Algeria vs Zambia?
1-0 (14.4%), followed by 2-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Algeria vs Zambia?
The probability that both Algeria and Zambia score is 44%. Algeria have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Zambia 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Algeria vs Zambia?
The model expects 2.45 goals (1.67 for Algeria, 0.78 for Zambia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Algeria vs Zambia played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Hocine Ait Ahmed Stadium, Tizi Ouzou.
What form are Algeria and Zambia in?
Algeria: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded). Zambia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Algeria and Zambia?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Algeria, 2 for Zambia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Zambia 3-3 Algeria (Mar 25, 2021).
What was the Algeria vs Zambia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Algeria 3-1 Zambia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Algeria was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
How is the Algeria vs Zambia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for Algeria, 0.78 for Zambia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Algeria predictions
- All Zambia predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology