AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Gambia vs Somalia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Gambia take on Somalia on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Independence Stadium, Bakau. With a 62% win probability, Gambia go in as strong favourites against Somalia (16%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.3%) and 1-1 (10.3%).
Gambia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 14 and conceding 12. Somalia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 3 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Somalia. On average Gambia score 2.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Somalia score 0.60 and concede 0.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Gambia and Somalia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Gambia or draw" stands at 84%, "Somalia or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Gambia to edge Somalia (62% probability). On recent form, Gambia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Somalia have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Gambia – Somalia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gambia 1-0 Somalia | 11.8% |
| Gambia 2-0 Somalia | 11.3% |
| Gambia 1-1 Somalia | 10.3% |
| Gambia 2-1 Somalia | 9.8% |
| Gambia 3-0 Somalia | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.78 goals in total (1.91 for Gambia, 0.87 for Somalia): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 50%. Gambia keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Somalia in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Gambia expected goals | 1.91 |
| Somalia expected goals | 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Gambia clean sheet | 42% |
| Somalia clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Gambia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Iran · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Senegal · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kuwait · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Seychelles · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 7-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Gabon · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 3-4 | L |
Somalia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mauritius · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mauritius · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Oman · Arab Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Bahrain · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Bahrain · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Gambia and Somalia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Gambia
No absences reported.
Somalia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Gambia
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Sanyang4/4
- A. Saine3/4
- A. Sidibeh3/4
- B. Gaye3/4
- M. Drammeh3/4
- A. Barry2/4
- A. Manneh2/4
- E. Adams2/4
- J. Ceesay2/4
- J. Gomez2/4
- M. Bajo2/4
Somalia
Starts over the last 1 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Abdullahi1/1
- A. Abdullahi Abdulle1/1
- A. Gigli1/1
- A. Musse1/1
- A. Omar1/1
- A. Sharif1/1
- C. C. Maxamed1/1
- M. Cumar1/1
- S. Dhadho1/1
- S. Hassan1/1
- Y. Cali1/1
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Gambia vs Somalia prediction?
Our AI gives Gambia a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Somalia 16%. Gambia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Gambia vs Somalia?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Gambia vs Somalia?
The probability that both Gambia and Somalia score is 50%. Gambia have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Somalia 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Gambia vs Somalia?
The model expects 2.78 goals (1.91 for Gambia, 0.87 for Somalia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Gambia vs Somalia played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Independence Stadium, Bakau.
What form are Gambia and Somalia in?
Gambia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 12 conceded). Somalia: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 1 conceded).
How is the Gambia vs Somalia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.91 for Gambia, 0.87 for Somalia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Gambia predictions
- All Somalia predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology