AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Malawi vs South Sudan: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Malawi 2-1 South Sudan. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Malawi at 59%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
Match analysis
Malawi and South Sudan met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe. Before kick-off, our model gave Malawi a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and South Sudan 18%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%) and 1-1 (10.8%).
Malawi have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 3. South Sudan have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Malawi score 0.40 and concede 0.60 goals per game; South Sudan score 0.80 and concede 1.60.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malawi, 1 for South Sudan and 0 draws. The most recent ended South Sudan 0-1 Malawi (Mar 24, 2021). In double chance terms, "Malawi or draw" stands at 82%, "South Sudan or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Malawi are tipped by our AI model in this Malawi v South Sudan (59%). On recent form, Malawi have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while South Sudan have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Malawi – South Sudan. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malawi 1-0 South Sudan | 11.8% |
| Malawi 2-0 South Sudan | 10.8% |
| Malawi 1-1 South Sudan | 10.8% |
| Malawi 2-1 South Sudan | 9.8% |
| Malawi 3-0 South Sudan | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.83 expected goals for Malawi and 0.91 for South Sudan, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Malawi keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, South Sudan in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Malawi expected goals | 1.83 |
| South Sudan expected goals | 0.91 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Malawi clean sheet | 40% |
| South Sudan clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Malawi
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Ethiopia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ethiopia · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Botswana · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zambia U23 · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Lesotho · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
South Sudan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Djibouti · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Djibouti · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 4-0 | W |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Syria · Arab Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Togo · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Senegal · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-5 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2021 | South Sudan 0-1 Malawi | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Nov 13, 2019 | Malawi 1-0 South Sudan | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Nov 27, 2015 | South Sudan 2-0 Malawi | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
Out and doubtful
Malawi
No absences reported.
South Sudan
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Malawi
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Nyirenda3/4
- L. Njaliwa3/4
- M. Lameck3/4
- B. Adepoju2/4
- C. Mphasi2/4
- C. Petro2/4
- D. Chembezi2/4
- G. Chirwa2/4
- M. Mhango2/4
- W. Thole2/4
- Babatunde Adepoju1/4
South Sudan
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Laku3/3
- C. Yak3/3
- K. Majak3/3
- M. Mawith3/3
- A. Geriga2/3
- M. Albano2/3
- M. Malish2/3
- R. Okocha2/3
- S. Taban2/3
- A. Leku1/3
- A. Riak1/3
Other matches in this competition
- Niger 2-1 LesothoSep 25, 2026
- Togo 1-0 BurundiSep 25, 2026
- Nigeria 2-1 MadagascarSep 25, 2026
- Gambia 2-1 SomaliaSep 25, 2026
- Sudan 1-0 EthiopiaSep 25, 2026
- Rwanda 3-1 LiberiaSep 25, 2026
- Mali – Cape VerdeSep 25, 2026
- Egypt – AngolaSep 25, 2026
- Burkina Faso – BeninSep 25, 2026
- Morocco – GabonSep 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Malawi vs South Sudan prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Malawi a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and South Sudan 18%. Malawi are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Malawi vs South Sudan?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Malawi vs South Sudan?
The probability that both Malawi and South Sudan score is 50%. Malawi have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, South Sudan 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Malawi vs South Sudan?
The model expects 2.74 goals (1.83 for Malawi, 0.91 for South Sudan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Malawi vs South Sudan played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe.
What form are Malawi and South Sudan in?
Malawi: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 3 conceded). South Sudan: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Malawi and South Sudan?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malawi, 1 for South Sudan and 0 draws. The most recent ended South Sudan 0-1 Malawi (Mar 24, 2021).
What was the Malawi vs South Sudan result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Malawi 2-1 South Sudan. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Malawi at 59%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
How is the Malawi vs South Sudan prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.83 for Malawi, 0.91 for South Sudan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Malawi predictions
- All South Sudan predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology