AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Sudan vs Ethiopia: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sudan at 54%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Sudan and Ethiopia met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Juba Stadium, Juba. Before kick-off, our model gave Sudan a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ethiopia 22%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (9.8%).
Sudan have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Ethiopia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Ethiopia therefore arrive in far better shape than Sudan. On average Sudan score 0.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Ethiopia score 1.40 and concede 0.80.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Sudan, 1 for Ethiopia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sudan 2-1 Ethiopia (Dec 25, 2024). In double chance terms, "Sudan or draw" stands at 78%, "Ethiopia or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Sudan are tipped by our AI model in this Sudan v Ethiopia (54%). On recent form, Sudan are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Ethiopia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sudan – Ethiopia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia | 11.6% |
| Sudan 1-1 Ethiopia | 11.5% |
| Sudan 2-0 Ethiopia | 9.8% |
| Sudan 2-1 Ethiopia | 9.7% |
| Sudan 0-0 Ethiopia | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.68 expected goals for Sudan and 0.99 for Ethiopia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Sudan keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Ethiopia in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sudan expected goals | 1.68 |
| Ethiopia expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Sudan clean sheet | 37% |
| Ethiopia clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sudan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-3 | L |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Burkina Faso · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-2 | L |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-0 | W |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Algeria · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-3 | L |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Bahrain · Arab Cup | 1-3 | L |
Ethiopia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | São Tomé & Príncipe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | São Tomé & Príncipe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burkina Faso · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-3 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 2024 | Sudan 2-1 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Ethiopia 0-2 Sudan | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Sudan 2-3 Ethiopia | International Friendlies |
| Aug 17, 2017 | Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship |
| Aug 12, 2017 | Ethiopia 1-1 Sudan | African Nations Championship |
Out and doubtful
Sudan
No absences reported.
Ethiopia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sudan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Taifour4/5
- M. Karshom4/5
- A. Abdallah3/5
- A. Omer3/5
- B. Khamis3/5
- M. Abdelrahman3/5
- M. Eisa3/5
- M. Elneel3/5
- M. Saeed Ahmed3/5
- W. Khidir3/5
- Y. Awad3/5
Ethiopia
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Belay2/3
- C. Gugsa2/3
- D. Hotessa2/3
- H. Tekeste2/3
- J. Yakob2/3
- R. James2/3
- S. Yohannes2/3
- W. Gezahegn2/3
- Y. Baye2/3
- A. Ambisa1/3
- A. Biniam1/3
Other matches in this competition
- Niger 2-1 LesothoSep 25, 2026
- Malawi 2-1 South SudanSep 25, 2026
- Togo 1-0 BurundiSep 25, 2026
- Nigeria 2-1 MadagascarSep 25, 2026
- Gambia 2-1 SomaliaSep 25, 2026
- Rwanda 3-1 LiberiaSep 25, 2026
- Mali – Cape VerdeSep 25, 2026
- Egypt – AngolaSep 25, 2026
- Burkina Faso – BeninSep 25, 2026
- Morocco – GabonSep 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sudan vs Ethiopia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sudan a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ethiopia 22%. Sudan are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Sudan vs Ethiopia?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%), 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Sudan vs Ethiopia?
The probability that both Sudan and Ethiopia score is 51%. Sudan have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ethiopia 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Sudan vs Ethiopia?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.68 for Sudan, 0.99 for Ethiopia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Sudan vs Ethiopia played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Juba Stadium, Juba.
What form are Sudan and Ethiopia in?
Sudan: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded). Ethiopia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sudan and Ethiopia?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Sudan, 1 for Ethiopia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sudan 2-1 Ethiopia (Dec 25, 2024).
What was the Sudan vs Ethiopia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sudan at 54%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Sudan vs Ethiopia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.68 for Sudan, 0.99 for Ethiopia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sudan predictions
- All Ethiopia predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology