AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Rwanda vs Liberia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: Rwanda vs Liberia kicks off on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade Amahoro, Kigali. With a 61% win probability, Rwanda go in as strong favourites against Liberia (17%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Rwanda have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Liberia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Rwanda. On average Rwanda score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Liberia score 1.00 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Rwanda and Liberia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Rwanda or draw" stands at 83%, "Liberia or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Rwanda to edge Liberia (61% probability). On recent form, Rwanda have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Liberia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rwanda – Liberia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rwanda 1-0 Liberia | 11.8% |
| Rwanda 2-0 Liberia | 11.2% |
| Rwanda 1-1 Liberia | 10.4% |
| Rwanda 2-1 Liberia | 9.9% |
| Rwanda 3-0 Liberia | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.78 goals in total (1.90 for Rwanda, 0.88 for Liberia): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 50%. Rwanda keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Liberia in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rwanda expected goals | 1.90 |
| Liberia expected goals | 0.88 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Rwanda clean sheet | 42% |
| Liberia clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Rwanda
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Estonia · FIFA Series | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Grenada · FIFA Series | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 14, 2025 | South Africa · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Benin · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Zimbabwe · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-0 | W |
Liberia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Sierra Leone · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sierra Leone · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Libya · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Benin · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Rwanda and Liberia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Rwanda
No absences reported.
Liberia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Rwanda
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Mutsinzi5/5
- B. Mugisha5/5
- C. Niyomugabo5/5
- D. Bizimana5/5
- J. Kwizera5/5
- P. Kavita4/5
- A. Biramahire3/5
- F. Ntwari3/5
- G. Byiringiro3/5
- G. Mugisha3/5
- K. Muhire3/5
Liberia
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Fully4/4
- A. Kosiah3/4
- D. Teah3/4
- P. Tarnue3/4
- A. Jamal2/4
- E. Ledlum2/4
- J. Yeanaye2/4
- K. Sherman2/4
- N. Kenneh2/4
- N. Swen2/4
- O. Dorley2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Rwanda vs Liberia prediction?
Our AI gives Rwanda a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Liberia 17%. Rwanda are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Rwanda vs Liberia?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Rwanda vs Liberia?
The probability that both Rwanda and Liberia score is 50%. Rwanda have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Liberia 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Rwanda vs Liberia?
The model expects 2.78 goals (1.90 for Rwanda, 0.88 for Liberia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Rwanda vs Liberia played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Amahoro, Kigali.
What form are Rwanda and Liberia in?
Rwanda: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Liberia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Rwanda vs Liberia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.90 for Rwanda, 0.88 for Liberia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rwanda predictions
- All Liberia predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology