AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 16:00 (UK time)· Match in progress
Niger vs Lesotho prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: the Niger vs Lesotho match is scheduled on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time). Venue: Ohene Djan Stadium, Accra. The edge goes to Niger (57%), ahead of the draw (23%) and a Lesotho win (20%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-0 (10.4%).
Niger have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 4. Lesotho have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Niger score 0.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Lesotho score 0.60 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Niger and Lesotho: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Niger or draw" stands at 80%, "Lesotho or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Niger are favourites for this Niger v Lesotho, with a 57% win probability from our model. On recent form, Niger have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Lesotho have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Niger – Lesotho. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Niger 1-0 Lesotho | 11.8% |
| Niger 1-1 Lesotho | 11.1% |
| Niger 2-0 Lesotho | 10.4% |
| Niger 2-1 Lesotho | 9.8% |
| Niger 0-0 Lesotho | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.71 goals in total (1.77 for Niger, 0.94 for Lesotho): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. Niger keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Lesotho in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Niger expected goals | 1.77 |
| Lesotho expected goals | 0.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Niger clean sheet | 39% |
| Lesotho clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Niger
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Mauritania · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Benin · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Togo · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Libya · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Lesotho
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Seychelles · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malawi · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Niger and Lesotho: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Niger
No absences reported.
Lesotho
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Niger
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Camara2/3
- A. Sabo2/3
- K. Boureima2/3
- M. Tanja2/3
- O. Badamassi2/3
- O. Sako2/3
- R. Alhassane2/3
- V. Adebayor2/3
- Y. Oumarou2/3
- Abdel Rahim1/3
- Aboubacar Camara1/3
Lesotho
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Fothoane2/3
- S. Motebang2/3
- T. Makhele2/3
- Fusi Matlabe1/3
- I. Falene1/3
- K. Kharejane1/3
- K. Koaeane1/3
- K. Rapuleng1/3
- Kananelo Rapuleng1/3
- L. Mofoka1/3
- M. Makhetha1/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Niger vs Lesotho prediction?
Our AI gives Niger a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lesotho 20%. Niger are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Niger vs Lesotho?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Niger vs Lesotho?
The probability that both Niger and Lesotho score is 51%. Niger have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lesotho 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Niger vs Lesotho?
The model expects 2.71 goals (1.77 for Niger, 0.94 for Lesotho). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Niger vs Lesotho played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Ohene Djan Stadium, Accra.
What form are Niger and Lesotho in?
Niger: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 4 conceded). Lesotho: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Niger vs Lesotho prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.77 for Niger, 0.94 for Lesotho) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Niger predictions
- All Lesotho predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology