AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Togo vs Burundi prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: Togo vs Burundi kicks off on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade de Kegue, Lome. Our model makes Togo clear favourites: a 60% chance of winning, against 22% for the draw and 18% for Burundi. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.9%) and 1-1 (10.6%).
Togo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Burundi have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Togo therefore arrive in far better shape than Burundi. On average Togo score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Burundi score 1.60 and concede 1.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Togo and Burundi: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Togo or draw" stands at 82%, "Burundi or draw" at 40% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Togo are favourites for this Togo v Burundi, with a 60% win probability from our model. On recent form, Togo have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Burundi have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Togo – Burundi. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Togo 1-0 Burundi | 11.8% |
| Togo 2-0 Burundi | 10.9% |
| Togo 1-1 Burundi | 10.6% |
| Togo 2-1 Burundi | 9.9% |
| Togo 3-0 Burundi | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.86 expected goals for Togo and 0.90 for Burundi, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Togo keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Burundi in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Togo expected goals | 1.86 |
| Burundi expected goals | 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Togo clean sheet | 41% |
| Burundi clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Togo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Benin · International Friendlies | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Central African Republic · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Niger · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 13, 2025 | South Sudan · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-0 | D |
Burundi
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 0-5 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Chad · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 4-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Chad · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Gabon · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Kenya · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Togo and Burundi: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Togo
No absences reported.
Burundi
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Togo
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bode4/4
- K. Denkey4/4
- D. Karim3/4
- Djene3/4
- K. Boateng3/4
- P. Nadjombe3/4
- R. Aholou3/4
- S. Mensah3/4
- S. Nador3/4
- C. Abi2/4
- B. Djibril1/4
Burundi
Starts over the last 2 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Muderi2/2
- C. Nduwarugira2/2
- H. Msanga2/2
- J. Girumugisha2/2
- J. Nahimana2/2
- M. Weymans2/2
- V. R. Mabanza2/2
- A. Bigirimana1/2
- B. Bimenyimana1/2
- B. Kanakimana1/2
- G. Bigirimana1/2
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Niger – LesothoSep 25, 2026
- Malawi – South SudanSep 25, 2026
- Nigeria – MadagascarSep 25, 2026
- Gambia – SomaliaSep 25, 2026
- Sudan 1-0 EthiopiaSep 25, 2026
- Rwanda – LiberiaSep 25, 2026
- Mali – Cape VerdeSep 25, 2026
- Egypt – AngolaSep 25, 2026
- Burkina Faso – BeninSep 25, 2026
- Morocco – GabonSep 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Togo vs Burundi prediction?
Our AI gives Togo a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burundi 18%. Togo are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Togo vs Burundi?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Togo vs Burundi?
The probability that both Togo and Burundi score is 50%. Togo have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Burundi 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Togo vs Burundi?
The model expects 2.76 goals (1.86 for Togo, 0.90 for Burundi). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Togo vs Burundi played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade de Kegue, Lome.
What form are Togo and Burundi in?
Togo: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Burundi: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Togo vs Burundi prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.86 for Togo, 0.90 for Burundi) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Togo predictions
- All Burundi predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology