AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Morocco vs Gabon prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: Morocco vs Gabon kicks off on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat. With a 70% win probability, Morocco go in as strong favourites against Gabon (12%), with the draw rated at 18%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.7%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Gabon have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Morocco. On average Morocco score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Gabon score 1.40 and concede 2.40.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Morocco, 1 for Gabon and 1 draw. The most recent ended Gabon 1-5 Morocco (Nov 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Morocco or draw" stands at 88%, "Gabon or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Morocco are tipped by our AI model in this Morocco v Gabon (70%). On recent form, Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Gabon are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Morocco – Gabon. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Morocco 2-0 Gabon | 12.7% |
| Morocco 1-0 Gabon | 11.7% |
| Morocco 2-1 Gabon | 9.5% |
| Morocco 3-0 Gabon | 9.2% |
| Morocco 1-1 Gabon | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.92 goals in total (2.17 for Morocco, 0.75 for Gabon): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 47%. Morocco keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Gabon in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Morocco expected goals | 2.17 |
| Gabon expected goals | 0.75 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Morocco clean sheet | 47% |
| Gabon clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Morocco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Haiti · FIFA World Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Scotland · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
Gabon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Trinidad & Tobago · FIFA Series | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan · FIFA Series | 1-3 | L |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Ivory Coast · Africa Cup of Nations | 2-3 | L |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Mozambique · Africa Cup of Nations | 2-3 | L |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Cameroon · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | Gabon 1-5 Morocco | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Morocco 4-1 Gabon | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Jan 18, 2022 | Gabon 2-2 Morocco | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Oct 15, 2019 | Morocco 2-3 Gabon | International Friendlies |
| Oct 7, 2017 | Morocco 3-0 Gabon | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
Out and doubtful
Morocco
No absences reported.
Gabon
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Morocco
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hakimi4/5
- B. Diaz4/5
- B. El Khannouss4/5
- Bono4/5
- I. Saibari4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- A. Bouaddi3/5
- A. Ounahi3/5
- C. Riad3/5
- I. Diop3/5
- N. Mazraoui3/5
Gabon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Ndong5/5
- G. Kanga4/5
- T. Averlant4/5
- A. Poko3/5
- D. Bouanga3/5
- F. Bekale3/5
- J. Ekomie3/5
- J. Oyono3/5
- M. Onfia3/5
- S. Babicka3/5
- A. Moucketou-Moussounda2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Morocco vs Gabon prediction?
Our AI gives Morocco a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Gabon 12%. Morocco are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Morocco vs Gabon?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.2%) and 1-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Morocco vs Gabon?
The probability that both Morocco and Gabon score is 47%. Morocco have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gabon 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Morocco vs Gabon?
The model expects 2.92 goals (2.17 for Morocco, 0.75 for Gabon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Morocco vs Gabon played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat.
What form are Morocco and Gabon in?
Morocco: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Gabon: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Morocco and Gabon?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Morocco, 1 for Gabon and 1 draw. The most recent ended Gabon 1-5 Morocco (Nov 15, 2024).
How is the Morocco vs Gabon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.17 for Morocco, 0.75 for Gabon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Morocco predictions
- All Gabon predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology