AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Morocco vs Gabon: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Morocco 2-0 Gabon. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Morocco was the model's favourite outcome (70%). The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.
Match analysis
Morocco vs Gabon was played on Friday, September 25, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat. Before kick-off, our model gave Morocco a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Gabon 12%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.7%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Gabon have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Morocco. On average Morocco score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Gabon score 1.40 and concede 2.40.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Morocco, 1 for Gabon and 1 draw. The most recent ended Gabon 1-5 Morocco (Nov 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Morocco or draw" stands at 88%, "Gabon or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Morocco are tipped by our AI model in this Morocco v Gabon (70%). On recent form, Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Gabon are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Morocco – Gabon. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Morocco 2-0 Gabon | 12.7% |
| Morocco 1-0 Gabon | 11.7% |
| Morocco 2-1 Gabon | 9.5% |
| Morocco 3-0 Gabon | 9.2% |
| Morocco 1-1 Gabon | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.92 goals in total (2.17 for Morocco, 0.75 for Gabon): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 47%. Morocco keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Gabon in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Morocco expected goals | 2.17 |
| Gabon expected goals | 0.75 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Morocco clean sheet | 47% |
| Gabon clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Morocco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Haiti · FIFA World Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Scotland · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
Gabon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Trinidad & Tobago · FIFA Series | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan · FIFA Series | 1-3 | L |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Ivory Coast · Africa Cup of Nations | 2-3 | L |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Mozambique · Africa Cup of Nations | 2-3 | L |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Cameroon · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | Gabon 1-5 Morocco | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Morocco 4-1 Gabon | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Jan 18, 2022 | Gabon 2-2 Morocco | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Oct 15, 2019 | Morocco 2-3 Gabon | International Friendlies |
| Oct 7, 2017 | Morocco 3-0 Gabon | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
Out and doubtful
Morocco
No absences reported.
Gabon
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Morocco
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hakimi4/5
- B. Diaz4/5
- B. El Khannouss4/5
- Bono4/5
- I. Saibari4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- A. Bouaddi3/5
- A. Ounahi3/5
- C. Riad3/5
- I. Diop3/5
- N. Mazraoui3/5
Gabon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Ndong5/5
- G. Kanga4/5
- T. Averlant4/5
- A. Poko3/5
- D. Bouanga3/5
- F. Bekale3/5
- J. Ekomie3/5
- J. Oyono3/5
- M. Onfia3/5
- S. Babicka3/5
- A. Moucketou-Moussounda2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Niger 2-1 LesothoSep 25, 2026
- Malawi 2-1 South SudanSep 25, 2026
- Togo 1-0 BurundiSep 25, 2026
- Nigeria 2-1 MadagascarSep 25, 2026
- Gambia 2-1 SomaliaSep 25, 2026
- Rwanda 3-1 LiberiaSep 25, 2026
- Mali 3-1 Cape VerdeSep 25, 2026
- Egypt 0-0 AngolaSep 25, 2026
- Burkina Faso 1-1 BeninSep 25, 2026
- Algeria 3-1 ZambiaSep 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Morocco vs Gabon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Morocco a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Gabon 12%. Morocco are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Morocco vs Gabon?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.2%) and 1-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Morocco vs Gabon?
The probability that both Morocco and Gabon score is 47%. Morocco have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gabon 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Morocco vs Gabon?
The model expects 2.92 goals (2.17 for Morocco, 0.75 for Gabon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Morocco vs Gabon played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat.
What form are Morocco and Gabon in?
Morocco: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Gabon: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Morocco and Gabon?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Morocco, 1 for Gabon and 1 draw. The most recent ended Gabon 1-5 Morocco (Nov 15, 2024).
What was the Morocco vs Gabon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Morocco 2-0 Gabon. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Morocco was the model's favourite outcome (70%). The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.
How is the Morocco vs Gabon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.17 for Morocco, 0.75 for Gabon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Morocco predictions
- All Gabon predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology