AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Nigeria vs Madagascar: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Nigeria was the model's favourite outcome (66%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.
Match analysis
Nigeria vs Madagascar was played on Friday, September 25, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, Uyo. Before kick-off, our model gave Nigeria a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Madagascar 14%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.9%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Nigeria have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Madagascar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 11. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Nigeria score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Madagascar score 1.80 and concede 2.20.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Nigeria, 1 for Madagascar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Madagascar 2-0 Nigeria (Jun 30, 2019). In double chance terms, "Nigeria or draw" stands at 86%, "Madagascar or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Nigeria are favourites for this Nigeria v Madagascar, with a 66% win probability from our model. On recent form, Nigeria have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Madagascar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Nigeria – Madagascar. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nigeria 2-0 Madagascar | 11.9% |
| Nigeria 1-0 Madagascar | 11.7% |
| Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar | 9.8% |
| Nigeria 1-1 Madagascar | 9.6% |
| Nigeria 3-0 Madagascar | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.85 goals in total (2.03 for Nigeria, 0.82 for Madagascar): over 2.5 goals has a 54% probability and both teams to score 49%. Nigeria keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Madagascar in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Nigeria expected goals | 2.03 |
| Madagascar expected goals | 0.82 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Nigeria clean sheet | 44% |
| Madagascar clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Nigeria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Portugal · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 30, 2026 | Jamaica · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| May 26, 2026 | Zimbabwe · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Jordan · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Madagascar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan · International Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Mali · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-4 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2019 | Madagascar 2-0 Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
Out and doubtful
Nigeria
No absences reported.
Madagascar
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Nigeria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Ogbu4/5
- T. Nnadi4/5
- A. Adams3/5
- M. Simon3/5
- T. Moffi3/5
- A. Okonkwo2/5
- B. Onyemaechi2/5
- C. Nwaiwu2/5
- C. Oputa2/5
- E. Fernandez2/5
- F. Azeez2/5
Madagascar
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Couturier3/3
- G. Dupire3/3
- R. Raveloson3/3
- B. Adinany2/3
- E. Kari2/3
- H. Abdallah2/3
- M. Ilaimaharitra2/3
- M. Jean-Pierre2/3
- S. Tremoulet2/3
- T. Fontaine2/3
- A. Pelmard1/3
Other matches in this competition
- Niger 2-1 LesothoSep 25, 2026
- Malawi 2-1 South SudanSep 25, 2026
- Togo 1-0 BurundiSep 25, 2026
- Gambia 2-1 SomaliaSep 25, 2026
- Sudan 1-0 EthiopiaSep 25, 2026
- Rwanda 3-1 LiberiaSep 25, 2026
- Mali – Cape VerdeSep 25, 2026
- Egypt – AngolaSep 25, 2026
- Burkina Faso – BeninSep 25, 2026
- Morocco – GabonSep 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Nigeria vs Madagascar prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Nigeria a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Madagascar 14%. Nigeria are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Nigeria vs Madagascar?
2-0 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%) and 3-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Nigeria vs Madagascar?
The probability that both Nigeria and Madagascar score is 49%. Nigeria have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Madagascar 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Nigeria vs Madagascar?
The model expects 2.85 goals (2.03 for Nigeria, 0.82 for Madagascar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Nigeria vs Madagascar played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, Uyo.
What form are Nigeria and Madagascar in?
Nigeria: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Madagascar: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Nigeria and Madagascar?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Nigeria, 1 for Madagascar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Madagascar 2-0 Nigeria (Jun 30, 2019).
What was the Nigeria vs Madagascar result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Nigeria was the model's favourite outcome (66%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.
How is the Nigeria vs Madagascar prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.03 for Nigeria, 0.82 for Madagascar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Nigeria predictions
- All Madagascar predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology