AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Burkina Faso vs Benin prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: the Burkina Faso vs Benin match is scheduled on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade du 4 Aout, Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso start as favourites with a 57% chance of victory; Benin are given 20% and the draw 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.0%) and 2-0 (10.4%).
Burkina Faso have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Benin have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Burkina Faso score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Benin score 1.00 and concede 1.80.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Burkina Faso, 1 for Benin and 2 draws. The most recent ended Burkina Faso 3-0 Benin (Nov 18, 2025). In double chance terms, "Burkina Faso or draw" stands at 80%, "Benin or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Burkina Faso are tipped by our AI model in this Burkina Faso v Benin (57%). On recent form, Burkina Faso have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Benin have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Burkina Faso – Benin. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Burkina Faso 1-0 Benin | 11.7% |
| Burkina Faso 1-1 Benin | 11.0% |
| Burkina Faso 2-0 Benin | 10.4% |
| Burkina Faso 2-1 Benin | 9.8% |
| Burkina Faso 0-0 Benin | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.78 expected goals for Burkina Faso and 0.94 for Benin, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Burkina Faso keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Benin in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Burkina Faso expected goals | 1.78 |
| Benin expected goals | 0.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Burkina Faso clean sheet | 39% |
| Benin clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Burkina Faso
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Russia · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau · International Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Ivory Coast · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-3 | L |
Benin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Togo · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Niger · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Liberia · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Egypt · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-3 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | Burkina Faso 3-0 Benin | International Friendlies |
| May 21, 2017 | Benin 2-2 Burkina Faso | International Friendlies |
| May 4, 2017 | Burkina Faso 1-1 Benin | International Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2015 | Burkina Faso 2-0 Benin | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
| Nov 12, 2015 | Benin 2-1 Burkina Faso | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
Out and doubtful
Burkina Faso
No absences reported.
Benin
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Burkina Faso
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Kouassi4/4
- A. Nagalo4/4
- D. Ouattara4/4
- E. Tapsoba4/4
- C. Irie3/4
- I. Ouedraogo3/4
- L. Doucet3/4
- H. Koffi2/4
- O. Bouda2/4
- P. Kabore2/4
- A. Zagre1/4
Benin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Imourane5/5
- M. Dandjinou5/5
- M. Tijani5/5
- A. Samadou4/5
- F. Santos4/5
- C. Azongnitode3/5
- D. Dodo3/5
- J. Olaitan3/5
- T. Ouorou3/5
- Y. Roche3/5
- L. Omore2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Burkina Faso vs Benin prediction?
Our AI gives Burkina Faso a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Benin 20%. Burkina Faso are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Burkina Faso vs Benin?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Burkina Faso vs Benin?
The probability that both Burkina Faso and Benin score is 51%. Burkina Faso have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Benin 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Burkina Faso vs Benin?
The model expects 2.72 goals (1.78 for Burkina Faso, 0.94 for Benin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Burkina Faso vs Benin played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade du 4 Aout, Ouagadougou.
What form are Burkina Faso and Benin in?
Burkina Faso: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Benin: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Burkina Faso and Benin?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Burkina Faso, 1 for Benin and 2 draws. The most recent ended Burkina Faso 3-0 Benin (Nov 18, 2025).
How is the Burkina Faso vs Benin prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.78 for Burkina Faso, 0.94 for Benin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Burkina Faso predictions
- All Benin predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology