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AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Burkina Faso vs Benin: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Burkina FasoBurkina Faso1 – 1BeninBenin

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Burkina Faso 1-1 Benin. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Burkina Faso (57%), while a draw was rated at only 23%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

Burkina Faso and Benin met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Stade du 4 Aout, Ouagadougou. Before kick-off, our model gave Burkina Faso a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Benin 20%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.0%) and 2-0 (10.4%).

Burkina Faso have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Benin have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Burkina Faso score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Benin score 1.00 and concede 1.80.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Burkina Faso, 1 for Benin and 2 draws. The most recent ended Burkina Faso 3-0 Benin (Nov 18, 2025). In double chance terms, "Burkina Faso or draw" stands at 80%, "Benin or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.

In short : Burkina Faso are tipped by our AI model in this Burkina Faso v Benin (57%). On recent form, Burkina Faso have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Benin have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

57%
Burkina Faso (Win)
23%
Draw
20%
Benin (Win)

Double chance

80%
Burkina Faso or draw
43%
Benin or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Burkina Faso – Benin. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Burkina Faso 1-0 Benin11.7%
Burkina Faso 1-1 Benin11.0%
Burkina Faso 2-0 Benin10.4%
Burkina Faso 2-1 Benin9.8%
Burkina Faso 0-0 Benin6.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.78 expected goals for Burkina Faso and 0.94 for Benin, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Burkina Faso keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Benin in 17%.

Probability
Burkina Faso expected goals1.78
Benin expected goals0.94
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Burkina Faso clean sheet39%
Benin clean sheet17%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Burkina Faso

DateOpponentScore
Jun 9, 2026Belarus · International Friendlies2-2D
Jun 5, 2026Russia · International Friendlies0-3L
Mar 31, 2026Guinea-Bissau · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 28, 2026Guinea-Bissau · International Friendlies5-0W
Jan 6, 2026Ivory Coast · Africa Cup of Nations0-3L

Benin

DateOpponentScore
Jun 9, 2026Togo · International Friendlies1-5L
Jun 5, 2026Niger · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 31, 2026Guinea · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 27, 2026Liberia · International Friendlies1-0W
Jan 5, 2026Egypt · Africa Cup of Nations1-3L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 18, 2025Burkina Faso 3-0 BeninInternational Friendlies
May 21, 2017Benin 2-2 Burkina FasoInternational Friendlies
May 4, 2017Burkina Faso 1-1 BeninInternational Friendlies
Nov 17, 2015Burkina Faso 2-0 BeninWorld Cup Qualifiers (Africa)
Nov 12, 2015Benin 2-1 Burkina FasoWorld Cup Qualifiers (Africa)

Out and doubtful

Burkina Faso

No absences reported.

Benin

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Burkina Faso

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Kouassi4/4
  • A. Nagalo4/4
  • D. Ouattara4/4
  • E. Tapsoba4/4
  • C. Irie3/4
  • I. Ouedraogo3/4
  • L. Doucet3/4
  • H. Koffi2/4
  • O. Bouda2/4
  • P. Kabore2/4
  • A. Zagre1/4

Benin

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • H. Imourane5/5
  • M. Dandjinou5/5
  • M. Tijani5/5
  • A. Samadou4/5
  • F. Santos4/5
  • C. Azongnitode3/5
  • D. Dodo3/5
  • J. Olaitan3/5
  • T. Ouorou3/5
  • Y. Roche3/5
  • L. Omore2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Burkina Faso vs Benin prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Burkina Faso a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Benin 20%. Burkina Faso are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Burkina Faso vs Benin?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.6%).

Will both teams score in Burkina Faso vs Benin?

The probability that both Burkina Faso and Benin score is 51%. Burkina Faso have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Benin 17%.

How many goals should we expect in Burkina Faso vs Benin?

The model expects 2.72 goals (1.78 for Burkina Faso, 0.94 for Benin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Burkina Faso vs Benin played?

Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade du 4 Aout, Ouagadougou.

What form are Burkina Faso and Benin in?

Burkina Faso: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Benin: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Burkina Faso and Benin?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Burkina Faso, 1 for Benin and 2 draws. The most recent ended Burkina Faso 3-0 Benin (Nov 18, 2025).

What was the Burkina Faso vs Benin result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Burkina Faso 1-1 Benin. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Burkina Faso (57%), while a draw was rated at only 23%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the Burkina Faso vs Benin prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.78 for Burkina Faso, 0.94 for Benin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained