AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Mali vs Cape Verde prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Mali take on Cape Verde on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Stage du 26 Mars, Balzers. Our model makes Mali clear favourites: a 65% chance of winning, against 23% for the draw and 12% for Cape Verde. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (16.5%), followed by 2-0 (14.5%) and 1-1 (10.1%).
Mali have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 4. Cape Verde have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Mali score 0.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Cape Verde score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mali and Cape Verde: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Mali or draw" stands at 88%, "Cape Verde or draw" at 35% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Mali are tipped by our AI model in this Mali v Cape Verde (65%). On recent form, Mali have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Cape Verde have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Mali – Cape Verde. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mali 1-0 Cape Verde | 16.5% |
| Mali 2-0 Cape Verde | 14.5% |
| Mali 1-1 Cape Verde | 10.1% |
| Mali 0-0 Cape Verde | 9.4% |
| Mali 2-1 Cape Verde | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.75 expected goals for Mali and 0.61 for Cape Verde, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 38%. Few goals are expected here. Mali keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Cape Verde in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Mali expected goals | 1.75 |
| Cape Verde expected goals | 0.61 |
| Both teams to score | 38% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Mali clean sheet | 54% |
| Cape Verde clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Mali
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Tunisia · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Comoros · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-0 | D |
Cape Verde
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Uruguay · FIFA World Cup | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bermuda · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mali and Cape Verde: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Mali
No absences reported.
Cape Verde
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Mali
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Dieng4/5
- D. Diarra4/5
- M. Sangare4/5
- N. Gassama4/5
- O. Camara4/5
- A. Diaby3/5
- L. Coulibaly3/5
- L. Sinayoko3/5
- M. Doumbia3/5
- Y. Bissouma3/5
- A. Dante2/5
Cape Verde
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Moreira4/5
- D. Livramento3/5
- Diney Borges3/5
- Kevin Pina3/5
- Pico3/5
- Ryan Mendes3/5
- S. Lopes Cabral3/5
- Vózinha3/5
- Deroy Duarte2/5
- J. Cabral2/5
- Jamiro Monteiro2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Mali vs Cape Verde prediction?
Our AI gives Mali a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cape Verde 12%. Mali are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Mali vs Cape Verde?
1-0 (16.5%), followed by 2-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Mali vs Cape Verde?
The probability that both Mali and Cape Verde score is 38%. Mali have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cape Verde 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Mali vs Cape Verde?
The model expects 2.36 goals (1.75 for Mali, 0.61 for Cape Verde). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Mali vs Cape Verde played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stage du 26 Mars, Balzers.
What form are Mali and Cape Verde in?
Mali: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 4 conceded). Cape Verde: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Mali vs Cape Verde prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.75 for Mali, 0.61 for Cape Verde) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Mali predictions
- All Cape Verde predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology