AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Burundi vs Algeria: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Burundi 2-2 Algeria. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Algeria (43%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Burundi and Algeria met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Stade Intwari, Bujumbura. Before kick-off, our model gave Burundi a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Algeria 43%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (8.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Burundi have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Algeria have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Burundi score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Algeria score 1.60 and concede 2.00.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Burundi, 2 for Algeria and 0 draws. The most recent ended Burundi 0-4 Algeria (Jan 9, 2024). In double chance terms, "Burundi or draw" stands at 57%, "Algeria or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Algeria are tipped by our AI model in this Burundi v Algeria (43%). On recent form, Burundi have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Algeria have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Burundi – Algeria. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Burundi 1-1 Algeria | 12.5% |
| Burundi 0-1 Algeria | 10.8% |
| Burundi 1-2 Algeria | 8.9% |
| Burundi 1-0 Algeria | 8.8% |
| Burundi 0-2 Algeria | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.16 expected goals for Burundi and 1.42 for Algeria, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Burundi keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Algeria in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Burundi expected goals | 1.16 |
| Algeria expected goals | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Burundi clean sheet | 24% |
| Algeria clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Burundi
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Togo · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-1 | L |
| May 26, 2026 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 0-5 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Chad · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 4-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Chad · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Gabon · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-2 | L |
Algeria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Zambia · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-3 | D |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Jordan · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | Burundi 0-4 Algeria | International Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2019 | Algeria 1-0 Burundi | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Burundi
No absences reported.
Algeria
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Burundi
Starts over the last 2 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Muderi2/2
- C. Nduwarugira2/2
- J. Girumugisha2/2
- J. Nahimana2/2
- A. Bigirimana1/2
- Abdoul Karim Mpawenimana1/2
- B. Bimenyimana1/2
- F. Nsabiyumva1/2
- H. Msanga1/2
- J. Liongola1/2
- J. Nshimirimana1/2
Algeria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Maza5/5
- A. Gouiri4/5
- A. Mandi4/5
- F. Chaibi4/5
- R. Belghali4/5
- R. Bensebaini4/5
- L. Zidane3/5
- N. Bentaleb3/5
- R. Ait-Nouri3/5
- R. Mahrez3/5
- H. Aouar2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Comoros 1-0 NamibiaSep 29, 2026
- Ethiopia 0-1 SenegalSep 29, 2026
- Mozambique 4-1 SudanSep 29, 2026
- South Sudan 0-5 EgyptSep 29, 2026
- Lesotho 0-2 MoroccoSep 29, 2026
- Madagascar 1-1 TanzaniaSep 29, 2026
- Zambia 2-0 TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda 1-0 LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau 3-0 NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana 2-4 GambiaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Burundi vs Algeria prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Burundi a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Algeria 43%. Algeria are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Burundi vs Algeria?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%), 1-2 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Burundi vs Algeria?
The probability that both Burundi and Algeria score is 52%. Burundi have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Algeria 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Burundi vs Algeria?
The model expects 2.58 goals (1.16 for Burundi, 1.42 for Algeria). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Burundi vs Algeria played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Intwari, Bujumbura.
What form are Burundi and Algeria in?
Burundi: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Algeria: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Burundi and Algeria?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Burundi, 2 for Algeria and 0 draws. The most recent ended Burundi 0-4 Algeria (Jan 9, 2024).
What was the Burundi vs Algeria result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Burundi 2-2 Algeria. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Algeria (43%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Burundi vs Algeria prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.16 for Burundi, 1.42 for Algeria) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Burundi predictions
- All Algeria predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology