AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Guinea-Bissau 3-0 Nigeria. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nigeria (65%), while victory for Guinea-Bissau was rated at only 10%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
Match analysis
Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Estádio 24 de Setembro, Bissau. Before kick-off, our model gave Guinea-Bissau a 10% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nigeria 65%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (21.8%), followed by 0-2 (16.6%) and 0-0 (14.4%).
Guinea-Bissau have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Nigeria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Nigeria therefore arrive in far better shape than Guinea-Bissau. On average Guinea-Bissau score 0.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Nigeria score 2.00 and concede 1.00.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Guinea-Bissau, 3 for Nigeria and 0 draws. The most recent ended Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria (Jan 22, 2024). In double chance terms, "Guinea-Bissau or draw" stands at 35%, "Nigeria or draw" at 90% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Nigeria to edge Guinea-Bissau (65% probability). On recent form, Guinea-Bissau have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Nigeria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Guinea-Bissau – Nigeria. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (21.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 70% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria | 21.8% |
| Guinea-Bissau 0-2 Nigeria | 16.6% |
| Guinea-Bissau 0-0 Nigeria | 14.4% |
| Guinea-Bissau 1-1 Nigeria | 9.2% |
| Guinea-Bissau 0-3 Nigeria | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.42 expected goals for Guinea-Bissau and 1.52 for Nigeria, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 31% and "both teams to score" at 27%. Few goals are expected here. Guinea-Bissau keep a clean sheet in 22% of scenarios, Nigeria in 66%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Guinea-Bissau expected goals | 0.42 |
| Nigeria expected goals | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score | 27% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Guinea-Bissau clean sheet | 22% |
| Nigeria clean sheet | 66% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Guinea-Bissau
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Tanzania · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Burkina Faso · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Burkina Faso · International Friendlies | 0-5 | L |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Egypt · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Ethiopia · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-1 | L |
Nigeria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Madagascar · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Portugal · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 30, 2026 | Jamaica · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| May 26, 2026 | Zimbabwe · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024 | Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Mar 27, 2023 | Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Nigeria 0-1 Guinea-Bissau | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Jan 19, 2022 | Guinea-Bissau 0-2 Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
Out and doubtful
Guinea-Bissau
No absences reported.
Nigeria
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Guinea-Bissau
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Beto3/4
- M. Balde3/4
- M. Rodrigues3/4
- R. Nhaga3/4
- Bura2/4
- F. Cande2/4
- O. Sangante2/4
- S. Mane2/4
- A. Djalo1/4
- C. Mane1/4
- Dalcio1/4
Nigeria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- T. Nnadi4/5
- A. Adams3/5
- I. Ogbu3/5
- T. Moffi3/5
- W. Ndidi3/5
- A. Iwobi2/5
- A. Okonkwo2/5
- B. Onyemaechi2/5
- C. Bassey2/5
- C. Nwaiwu2/5
- C. Oputa2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Ethiopia 0-1 SenegalSep 29, 2026
- Mozambique 4-1 SudanSep 29, 2026
- South Sudan 0-5 EgyptSep 29, 2026
- Madagascar 1-1 TanzaniaSep 29, 2026
- Zambia 2-0 TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda 1-0 LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana 2-4 GambiaSep 29, 2026
- Cape Verde 1-2 RwandaSep 29, 2026
- Somalia 0-2 Ivory CoastSep 29, 2026
- Liberia 0-1 MaliSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Guinea-Bissau a 10% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nigeria 65%. Nigeria are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria?
0-1 (21.8%), followed by 0-2 (16.6%), 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (9.2%) and 0-3 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria?
The probability that both Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria score is 27%. Guinea-Bissau have a 22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Nigeria 66%.
How many goals should we expect in Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria?
The model expects 1.94 goals (0.42 for Guinea-Bissau, 1.52 for Nigeria). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 31%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Estádio 24 de Setembro, Bissau.
What form are Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria in?
Guinea-Bissau: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded). Nigeria: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Guinea-Bissau, 3 for Nigeria and 0 draws. The most recent ended Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria (Jan 22, 2024).
What was the Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Guinea-Bissau 3-0 Nigeria. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nigeria (65%), while victory for Guinea-Bissau was rated at only 10%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
How is the Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.42 for Guinea-Bissau, 1.52 for Nigeria) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Guinea-Bissau predictions
- All Nigeria predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology