AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Madagascar vs Tanzania: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Madagascar (36%), while a draw was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (13.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (25%): correct.
Match analysis
Madagascar and Tanzania met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Stade d'Honneur, Meknes. Before kick-off, our model gave Madagascar a 36% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Tanzania 31%. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (17.7%), followed by 1-0 (16.1%) and 0-1 (14.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Madagascar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Tanzania have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Madagascar score 1.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Tanzania score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Madagascar, 2 for Tanzania and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tanzania 2-1 Madagascar (Aug 9, 2025). In double chance terms, "Madagascar or draw" stands at 69%, "Tanzania or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 66%.
In short : Madagascar host Tanzania in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (34%). On recent form, Madagascar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Tanzania have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Madagascar – Tanzania. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 69% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Madagascar 0-0 Tanzania | 17.7% |
| Madagascar 1-0 Tanzania | 16.1% |
| Madagascar 0-1 Tanzania | 14.5% |
| Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania | 13.2% |
| Madagascar 2-0 Tanzania | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.91 expected goals for Madagascar and 0.82 for Tanzania, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 25% and "both teams to score" at 33%. Few goals are expected here. Madagascar keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Tanzania in 40%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Madagascar expected goals | 0.91 |
| Tanzania expected goals | 0.82 |
| Both teams to score | 33% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% |
| Madagascar clean sheet | 44% |
| Tanzania clean sheet | 40% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Madagascar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Nigeria · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan · International Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Tanzania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Macau · FIFA Series | 6-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Liechtenstein · FIFA Series | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Morocco · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Tunisia · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2025 | Tanzania 2-1 Madagascar | African Nations Championship |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Tanzania 0-1 Madagascar | COSAFA Cup |
| Nov 14, 2021 | Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Tanzania 3-2 Madagascar | World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) |
Out and doubtful
Madagascar
No absences reported.
Tanzania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Madagascar
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Couturier3/3
- E. Kari3/3
- G. Dupire3/3
- H. Abdallah3/3
- R. Raveloson3/3
- M. Ilaimaharitra2/3
- M. Jean-Pierre2/3
- R. Ponti2/3
- T. Fontaine2/3
- A. Randrianantenaina1/3
- B. Adinany1/3
Tanzania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mwamnyeto5/5
- F. Salum4/5
- H. Mnoga4/5
- M. Hussein4/5
- A. Msanga3/5
- I. Hamad3/5
- N. Miroshi3/5
- D. Job2/5
- H. Masalanga2/5
- S. Msuva2/5
- S. Mwalimu2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Comoros 1-0 NamibiaSep 29, 2026
- Ethiopia 0-1 SenegalSep 29, 2026
- Mozambique 4-1 SudanSep 29, 2026
- South Sudan 0-5 EgyptSep 29, 2026
- Lesotho 0-2 MoroccoSep 29, 2026
- Burundi 2-2 AlgeriaSep 29, 2026
- Zambia 2-0 TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda 1-0 LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau 3-0 NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana 2-4 GambiaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Madagascar vs Tanzania prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Madagascar a 36% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Tanzania 31%. Madagascar are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Madagascar vs Tanzania?
0-0 (17.7%), followed by 1-0 (16.1%), 0-1 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.2%) and 2-0 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Madagascar vs Tanzania?
The probability that both Madagascar and Tanzania score is 33%. Madagascar have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Tanzania 40%.
How many goals should we expect in Madagascar vs Tanzania?
The model expects 1.73 goals (0.91 for Madagascar, 0.82 for Tanzania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 52%, over 2.5 goals 25%, over 3.5 goals 10%.
When and where is Madagascar vs Tanzania played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade d'Honneur, Meknes.
What form are Madagascar and Tanzania in?
Madagascar: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded). Tanzania: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Madagascar and Tanzania?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Madagascar, 2 for Tanzania and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tanzania 2-1 Madagascar (Aug 9, 2025).
What was the Madagascar vs Tanzania result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Madagascar (36%), while a draw was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (13.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (25%): correct.
How is the Madagascar vs Tanzania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.91 for Madagascar, 0.82 for Tanzania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Madagascar predictions
- All Tanzania predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology