AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Madagascar vs Tanzania prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Madagascar take on Tanzania on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Madagascar start as favourites with a 53% chance of victory; Tanzania are given 23% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Madagascar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Tanzania have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Madagascar score 1.80 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Tanzania score 1.60 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Madagascar and Tanzania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Madagascar or draw" stands at 77%, "Tanzania or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Madagascar are tipped by our AI model in this Madagascar v Tanzania (53%). On recent form, Madagascar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Tanzania have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Madagascar – Tanzania. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania | 11.6% |
| Madagascar 1-0 Tanzania | 11.5% |
| Madagascar 2-1 Tanzania | 9.6% |
| Madagascar 2-0 Tanzania | 9.5% |
| Madagascar 0-1 Tanzania | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.66 expected goals for Madagascar and 1.01 for Tanzania, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Madagascar keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Tanzania in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Madagascar expected goals | 1.66 |
| Tanzania expected goals | 1.01 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Madagascar clean sheet | 36% |
| Tanzania clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Madagascar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan · International Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Mali · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-4 | L |
Tanzania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Macau · FIFA Series | 6-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Liechtenstein · FIFA Series | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Morocco · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Tunisia · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Uganda · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Madagascar and Tanzania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Madagascar
No absences reported.
Tanzania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Madagascar
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Couturier3/3
- G. Dupire3/3
- R. Raveloson3/3
- B. Adinany2/3
- E. Kari2/3
- H. Abdallah2/3
- M. Ilaimaharitra2/3
- M. Jean-Pierre2/3
- S. Tremoulet2/3
- T. Fontaine2/3
- A. Pelmard1/3
Tanzania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mwamnyeto5/5
- A. Msanga4/5
- F. Salum4/5
- H. Mnoga4/5
- M. Hussein4/5
- N. Miroshi4/5
- I. Hamad3/5
- S. Msuva3/5
- D. Job2/5
- H. Masalanga2/5
- K. John2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Madagascar vs Tanzania prediction?
Our AI gives Madagascar a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tanzania 23%. Madagascar are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Madagascar vs Tanzania?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%) and 0-1 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Madagascar vs Tanzania?
The probability that both Madagascar and Tanzania score is 52%. Madagascar have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Tanzania 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Madagascar vs Tanzania?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.66 for Madagascar, 1.01 for Tanzania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Madagascar vs Tanzania played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers.
What form are Madagascar and Tanzania in?
Madagascar: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded). Tanzania: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Madagascar vs Tanzania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Madagascar, 1.01 for Tanzania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Madagascar predictions
- All Tanzania predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology