AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Zambia vs Togo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Zambia take on Togo on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. The edge goes to Zambia (46%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Togo win (28%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), ahead of 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Zambia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 11. Togo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Togo. On average Zambia score 0.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Togo score 1.80 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Zambia and Togo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Zambia or draw" stands at 72%, "Togo or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Zambia are favourites for this Zambia v Togo, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Zambia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Togo have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Zambia – Togo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Zambia 1-1 Togo | 12.2% |
| Zambia 1-0 Togo | 11.1% |
| Zambia 2-1 Togo | 9.2% |
| Zambia 2-0 Togo | 8.4% |
| Zambia 0-1 Togo | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.61 goals in total (1.51 for Zambia, 1.10 for Togo): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Zambia keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Togo in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Zambia expected goals | 1.51 |
| Togo expected goals | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Zambia clean sheet | 33% |
| Togo clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Zambia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-5 | L |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Morocco · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-3 | L |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Comoros · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-0 | D |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Mali · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 16, 2025 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Togo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Benin · International Friendlies | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Central African Republic · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Niger · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 13, 2025 | South Sudan · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-0 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Zambia and Togo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Zambia
No absences reported.
Togo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Zambia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Chanda4/5
- W. Mwanza4/5
- B. Sakala3/5
- F. Sakala3/5
- K. Kangwa3/5
- L. Musonda3/5
- M. Banda3/5
- P. Daka3/5
- D. Simukonda2/5
- L. Banda2/5
- M. Chaiwa2/5
Togo
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bode4/4
- K. Denkey4/4
- D. Karim3/4
- Djene3/4
- K. Boateng3/4
- P. Nadjombe3/4
- R. Aholou3/4
- S. Mensah3/4
- S. Nador3/4
- C. Abi2/4
- B. Djibril1/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Zambia vs Togo prediction?
Our AI gives Zambia a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Togo 28%. Zambia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Zambia vs Togo?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.4%) and 0-1 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Zambia vs Togo?
The probability that both Zambia and Togo score is 52%. Zambia have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Togo 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Zambia vs Togo?
The model expects 2.61 goals (1.51 for Zambia, 1.10 for Togo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Zambia vs Togo played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers.
What form are Zambia and Togo in?
Zambia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 11 conceded). Togo: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Zambia vs Togo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.51 for Zambia, 1.10 for Togo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Zambia predictions
- All Togo predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology