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AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Zambia vs Togo: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

ZambiaZambia2 – 0TogoTogo

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Zambia 2-0 Togo. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Zambia was the model's favourite outcome (45%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

Match analysis

Zambia vs Togo was played on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, Ndola. Before kick-off, our model gave Zambia a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Togo 29%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.3%), ahead of 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.1%).

Zambia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 12. Togo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Togo. On average Zambia score 0.40 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Togo score 2.00 and concede 0.80.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Zambia and Togo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Zambia or draw" stands at 71%, "Togo or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Zambia are favourites for this Zambia v Togo, with a 45% win probability from our model. On recent form, Zambia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Togo have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

45%
Zambia (Win)
26%
Draw
29%
Togo (Win)

Double chance

71%
Zambia or draw
55%
Togo or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Zambia – Togo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Zambia 1-1 Togo12.3%
Zambia 1-0 Togo10.9%
Zambia 2-1 Togo9.1%
Zambia 0-1 Togo8.3%
Zambia 2-0 Togo8.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.61 goals in total (1.48 for Zambia, 1.13 for Togo): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Zambia keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Togo in 23%.

Probability
Zambia expected goals1.48
Togo expected goals1.13
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Zambia clean sheet32%
Togo clean sheet23%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Zambia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Algeria · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-3L
Apr 1, 2026Argentina · International Friendlies0-5L
Dec 29, 2025Morocco · Africa Cup of Nations0-3L
Dec 26, 2025Comoros · Africa Cup of Nations0-0D
Dec 22, 2025Mali · Africa Cup of Nations1-1D

Togo

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Burundi · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-0W
Jun 9, 2026Benin · International Friendlies5-1W
Jun 5, 2026Central African Republic · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 31, 2026Niger · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 27, 2026Guinea · International Friendlies2-2D

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Zambia and Togo: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Zambia

No absences reported.

Togo

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Zambia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Chanda4/5
  • F. Sakala4/5
  • M. Banda4/5
  • P. Daka4/5
  • W. Mwanza4/5
  • B. Sakala3/5
  • K. Kangwa3/5
  • L. Musonda3/5
  • M. Chaiwa3/5
  • A. Kangwanda2/5
  • D. Hamansenya2/5

Togo

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Karim4/4
  • K. Denkey4/4
  • S. Nador4/4
  • A. Bode3/4
  • Djene3/4
  • P. Nadjombe3/4
  • C. Abi2/4
  • K. Boateng2/4
  • M. Barcola2/4
  • R. Aholou2/4
  • S. Mensah2/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Zambia vs Togo prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Zambia a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Togo 29%. Zambia are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Zambia vs Togo?

1-1 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (8.1%).

Will both teams score in Zambia vs Togo?

The probability that both Zambia and Togo score is 52%. Zambia have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Togo 23%.

How many goals should we expect in Zambia vs Togo?

The model expects 2.61 goals (1.48 for Zambia, 1.13 for Togo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Zambia vs Togo played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, Ndola.

What form are Zambia and Togo in?

Zambia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 12 conceded). Togo: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded).

What was the Zambia vs Togo result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Zambia 2-0 Togo. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Zambia was the model's favourite outcome (45%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

How is the Zambia vs Togo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.48 for Zambia, 1.13 for Togo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained