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AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Mozambique vs Sudan: 4-1 result and AI prediction review

MozambiqueMozambique4 – 1SudanSudan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Mozambique 4-1 Sudan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mozambique was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Mozambique vs Sudan was played on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Before kick-off, our model gave Mozambique a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sudan 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

Mozambique have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Sudan have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Sudan. On average Mozambique score 0.60 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Sudan score 0.60 and concede 1.60.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mozambique and Sudan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Mozambique or draw" stands at 73%, "Sudan or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Mozambique are tipped by our AI model in this Mozambique v Sudan (48%). On recent form, Mozambique are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Sudan have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

48%
Mozambique (Win)
25%
Draw
27%
Sudan (Win)

Double chance

73%
Mozambique or draw
52%
Sudan or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Mozambique – Sudan. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Mozambique 1-1 Sudan12.1%
Mozambique 1-0 Sudan11.2%
Mozambique 2-1 Sudan9.3%
Mozambique 2-0 Sudan8.6%
Mozambique 0-1 Sudan7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.62 goals in total (1.54 for Mozambique, 1.08 for Sudan): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Mozambique keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Sudan in 21%.

Probability
Mozambique expected goals1.54
Sudan expected goals1.08
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Mozambique clean sheet34%
Sudan clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Mozambique

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Senegal · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-1D
Jun 9, 2026Indonesia · International Friendlies0-1L
Jun 7, 2026Oman · International Friendlies1-4L
Jan 5, 2026Nigeria · Africa Cup of Nations0-4L
Dec 31, 2025Cameroon · Africa Cup of Nations1-2L

Sudan

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Ethiopia · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-0W
Jan 3, 2026Senegal · Africa Cup of Nations1-3L
Dec 31, 2025Burkina Faso · Africa Cup of Nations0-2L
Dec 28, 2025Equatorial Guinea · Africa Cup of Nations1-0W
Dec 24, 2025Algeria · Africa Cup of Nations0-3L

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mozambique and Sudan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Mozambique

No absences reported.

Sudan

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Mozambique

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Dove3/4
  • Nanani3/4
  • D. Antonio2/4
  • Diogo Calila2/4
  • Domingues2/4
  • G. Catamo2/4
  • I. Urrubal2/4
  • M. Kambala2/4
  • Nene2/4
  • A. Amade1/4
  • A. Reis1/4

Sudan

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • M. Eisa4/5
  • A. Abdallah3/5
  • A. Taifour3/5
  • B. Khamis3/5
  • M. Elneel3/5
  • M. Karshom3/5
  • M. Saeed Ahmed3/5
  • S. Barglan3/5
  • A. Omer2/5
  • M. Abdelrahman2/5
  • M. Abuaagla2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Mozambique vs Sudan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Mozambique a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sudan 27%. Mozambique are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Mozambique vs Sudan?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 0-1 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Mozambique vs Sudan?

The probability that both Mozambique and Sudan score is 52%. Mozambique have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sudan 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Mozambique vs Sudan?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.54 for Mozambique, 1.08 for Sudan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Mozambique vs Sudan played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers.

What form are Mozambique and Sudan in?

Mozambique: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 12 conceded). Sudan: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).

What was the Mozambique vs Sudan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Mozambique 4-1 Sudan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mozambique was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Mozambique vs Sudan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for Mozambique, 1.08 for Sudan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained