AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Uganda vs Libya prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: the Uganda vs Libya match is scheduled on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Venue: Hoima City Stadium, Hoima. The edge goes to Uganda (49%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Libya win (26%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Uganda have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 12. Libya are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (1 win, 4 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Uganda score 1.00 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Libya score 1.00 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Uganda and Libya: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Uganda or draw" stands at 74%, "Libya or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Uganda are tipped by our AI model in this Uganda v Libya (49%). On recent form, Uganda have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Libya have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Uganda – Libya. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Uganda 1-1 Libya | 12.0% |
| Uganda 1-0 Libya | 11.3% |
| Uganda 2-1 Libya | 9.4% |
| Uganda 2-0 Libya | 8.9% |
| Uganda 0-1 Libya | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.63 goals in total (1.57 for Uganda, 1.06 for Libya): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Uganda keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Libya in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Uganda expected goals | 1.57 |
| Libya expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Uganda clean sheet | 35% |
| Libya clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Uganda
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Nigeria · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-3 | L |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Tanzania · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Tunisia · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Chad · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Libya
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Botswana · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Liberia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Niger · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Palestinian Territories · Arab Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Mauritania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Uganda and Libya: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Uganda
No absences reported.
Libya
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Uganda
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Obita4/5
- T. Sibbick4/5
- A. Kayondo3/5
- B. Alhassan3/5
- B. Byaruhanga3/5
- K. Semakula3/5
- R. Mato3/5
- D. Onyango2/5
- J. Ssemugabi2/5
- M. Lorenzen2/5
- R. Torach2/5
Libya
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- Ali Youssef2/3
- Ezoo El Mariamy2/3
- O. Elsharimi2/3
- A. Akasha1/3
- A. Al Gsheim1/3
- A. Al Tihar1/3
- A. Saleh1/3
- Abdelaziz Ali1/3
- Al Musrati1/3
- Ali Almusrat1/3
- Ayman Altihar1/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Ghana – GambiaSep 29, 2026
- Cape Verde – RwandaSep 29, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Uganda vs Libya prediction?
Our AI gives Uganda a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Libya 26%. Uganda are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Uganda vs Libya?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Uganda vs Libya?
The probability that both Uganda and Libya score is 52%. Uganda have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Libya 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Uganda vs Libya?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.57 for Uganda, 1.06 for Libya). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Uganda vs Libya played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Hoima City Stadium, Hoima.
What form are Uganda and Libya in?
Uganda: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 12 conceded). Libya: 1 win, 4 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Uganda vs Libya prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.57 for Uganda, 1.06 for Libya) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Uganda predictions
- All Libya predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology