AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Uganda vs Libya: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Uganda 1-0 Libya. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Uganda was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (19.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (28%): correct.
Match analysis
Uganda vs Libya was played on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Hoima City Stadium, Hoima. Before kick-off, our model gave Uganda a 49% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Libya 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (19.1%), ahead of 0-0 (16.2%) and 1-1 (12.2%).
Uganda have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. Libya are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (1 win, 4 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Libya. On average Uganda score 0.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Libya score 1.00 and concede 0.80.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Uganda, 0 for Libya and 1 draw. The most recent ended Libya 0-0 Uganda (Sep 21, 2022). In double chance terms, "Uganda or draw" stands at 80%, "Libya or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : Uganda are tipped by our AI model in this Uganda v Libya (49%). On recent form, Uganda have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Libya have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Uganda – Libya. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 69% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Uganda 1-0 Libya | 19.1% |
| Uganda 0-0 Libya | 16.2% |
| Uganda 1-1 Libya | 12.2% |
| Uganda 2-0 Libya | 11.3% |
| Uganda 0-1 Libya | 10.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.82 goals in total (1.18 for Uganda, 0.64 for Libya): over 2.5 goals has a 28% probability and both teams to score 33%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Uganda keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Libya in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Uganda expected goals | 1.18 |
| Libya expected goals | 0.64 |
| Both teams to score | 33% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% |
| Uganda clean sheet | 53% |
| Libya clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Uganda
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Tunisia · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Nigeria · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-3 | L |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Tanzania · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Tunisia · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Libya
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Botswana · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Liberia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Niger · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Palestinian Territories · Arab Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Mauritania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2022 | Libya 0-0 Uganda | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Uganda
No absences reported.
Libya
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Uganda
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Kayondo3/5
- J. Obita3/5
- K. Semakula3/5
- R. Mato3/5
- T. Sibbick3/5
- Allan Okello2/5
- B. Alhassan2/5
- B. Byaruhanga2/5
- D. Onyango2/5
- Denis Onyango2/5
- J. Ssemugabi2/5
Libya
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- Ali Youssef2/3
- Ezoo El Mariamy2/3
- O. Elsharimi2/3
- A. Akasha1/3
- A. Al Gsheim1/3
- A. Al Tihar1/3
- A. Saleh1/3
- Abdelaziz Ali1/3
- Al Musrati1/3
- Ali Almusrat1/3
- Ayman Altihar1/3
Other matches in this competition
- Ethiopia 0-1 SenegalSep 29, 2026
- Mozambique 4-1 SudanSep 29, 2026
- South Sudan 0-5 EgyptSep 29, 2026
- Madagascar 1-1 TanzaniaSep 29, 2026
- Zambia 2-0 TogoSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau 3-0 NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana 2-4 GambiaSep 29, 2026
- Cape Verde 1-2 RwandaSep 29, 2026
- Somalia 0-2 Ivory CoastSep 29, 2026
- Liberia 0-1 MaliSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Uganda vs Libya prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Uganda a 49% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Libya 20%. Uganda are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Uganda vs Libya?
1-0 (19.1%), followed by 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.3%) and 0-1 (10.4%).
Will both teams score in Uganda vs Libya?
The probability that both Uganda and Libya score is 33%. Uganda have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Libya 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Uganda vs Libya?
The model expects 1.82 goals (1.18 for Uganda, 0.64 for Libya). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 54%, over 2.5 goals 28%, over 3.5 goals 11%.
When and where is Uganda vs Libya played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Hoima City Stadium, Hoima.
What form are Uganda and Libya in?
Uganda: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded). Libya: 1 win, 4 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Uganda and Libya?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Uganda, 0 for Libya and 1 draw. The most recent ended Libya 0-0 Uganda (Sep 21, 2022).
What was the Uganda vs Libya result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Uganda 1-0 Libya. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Uganda was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (19.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (28%): correct.
How is the Uganda vs Libya prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.18 for Uganda, 0.64 for Libya) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Uganda predictions
- All Libya predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology