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AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Liberia vs Mali: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

LiberiaLiberia0 – 1MaliMali

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Liberia 0-1 Mali. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mali was the model's favourite outcome (64%). The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (18.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.

Match analysis

Liberia vs Mali was played on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, Monrovia. Before kick-off, our model gave Liberia a 12% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mali 64%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (18.7%), ahead of 0-2 (15.1%) and 0-0 (11.5%).

Liberia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Mali have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Liberia score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Mali score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Liberia sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Mali 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Liberia and Mali: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Liberia or draw" stands at 36%, "Mali or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Mali are favourites for this Liberia v Mali, with a 64% win probability from our model. In the table, Liberia (4th, 0 pts) host Mali (2nd, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

12%
Liberia (Win)
24%
Draw
64%
Mali (Win)

Double chance

36%
Liberia or draw
88%
Mali or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Liberia – Mali. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (18.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 64% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Liberia 0-1 Mali18.7%
Liberia 0-2 Mali15.1%
Liberia 0-0 Mali11.5%
Liberia 1-1 Mali10.1%
Liberia 1-2 Mali8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.16 goals in total (0.54 for Liberia, 1.62 for Mali): over 2.5 goals has a 37% probability and both teams to score 34%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Liberia keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Mali in 58%.

Probability
Liberia expected goals0.54
Mali expected goals1.62
Both teams to score34%
Over 1.5 goals64%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Liberia clean sheet20%
Mali clean sheet58%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Liberia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Rwanda · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-3L
Jun 9, 2026Sierra Leone · International Friendlies3-1W
Jun 6, 2026Sierra Leone · International Friendlies0-1L
Mar 31, 2026Libya · International Friendlies2-2D
Mar 27, 2026Benin · International Friendlies0-1L

Mali

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Cape Verde · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers3-1W
Jun 4, 2026Iran · International Friendlies0-2L
Mar 31, 2026Russia · International Friendlies0-0D
Jan 9, 2026Senegal · Africa Cup of Nations0-1L
Jan 3, 2026Tunisia · Africa Cup of Nations1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Liberia401
Mali231

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Liberia and Mali: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Liberia

No absences reported.

Mali

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Liberia

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Fully4/4
  • D. Teah3/4
  • O. Dorley3/4
  • P. Tarnue3/4
  • A. Jamal2/4
  • A. Kosiah2/4
  • K. Sherman2/4
  • N. Kenneh2/4
  • N. Swen2/4
  • S. Dweh2/4
  • S. Teclar2/4

Mali

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Dieng4/5
  • D. Diarra4/5
  • N. Gassama4/5
  • O. Camara4/5
  • L. Coulibaly3/5
  • L. Sinayoko3/5
  • M. Doumbia3/5
  • M. Sangare3/5
  • A. Dante2/5
  • A. Diaby2/5
  • A. Haidara2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Liberia vs Mali prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Liberia a 12% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mali 64%. Mali are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Liberia vs Mali?

0-1 (18.7%), followed by 0-2 (15.1%), 0-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.1%) and 1-2 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in Liberia vs Mali?

The probability that both Liberia and Mali score is 34%. Liberia have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Mali 58%.

How many goals should we expect in Liberia vs Mali?

The model expects 2.16 goals (0.54 for Liberia, 1.62 for Mali). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 17%.

When and where is Liberia vs Mali played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, Monrovia.

What form are Liberia and Mali in?

Liberia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Mali: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Liberia vs Mali result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Liberia 0-1 Mali. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mali was the model's favourite outcome (64%). The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (18.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.

How is the Liberia vs Mali prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.54 for Liberia, 1.62 for Mali) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained