AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Liberia vs Mali prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: the Liberia vs Mali match is scheduled on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, Monrovia. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Liberia 32%, Mali 42% and the draw 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.5%), ahead of 0-1 (10.5%) and 1-0 (8.9%).
Liberia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Mali have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Liberia score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Mali score 0.20 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Liberia and Mali: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Liberia or draw" stands at 58%, "Mali or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Mali are favourites for this Liberia v Mali, with a 42% win probability from our model. On recent form, Liberia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Mali have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Liberia – Mali. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liberia 1-1 Mali | 12.5% |
| Liberia 0-1 Mali | 10.5% |
| Liberia 1-0 Mali | 8.9% |
| Liberia 1-2 Mali | 8.7% |
| Liberia 0-0 Mali | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.59 goals in total (1.19 for Liberia, 1.40 for Mali): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Liberia keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Mali in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Liberia expected goals | 1.19 |
| Mali expected goals | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Liberia clean sheet | 25% |
| Mali clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Liberia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Sierra Leone · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sierra Leone · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Libya · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Benin · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Mali
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Tunisia · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Comoros · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-0 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Liberia and Mali: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Liberia
No absences reported.
Mali
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Liberia
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Fully4/4
- A. Kosiah3/4
- D. Teah3/4
- P. Tarnue3/4
- A. Jamal2/4
- E. Ledlum2/4
- J. Yeanaye2/4
- K. Sherman2/4
- N. Kenneh2/4
- N. Swen2/4
- O. Dorley2/4
Mali
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Dieng4/5
- D. Diarra4/5
- M. Sangare4/5
- N. Gassama4/5
- O. Camara4/5
- A. Diaby3/5
- L. Coulibaly3/5
- L. Sinayoko3/5
- M. Doumbia3/5
- Y. Bissouma3/5
- A. Dante2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Zambia – TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda – LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau – NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana – GambiaSep 29, 2026
- Cape Verde – RwandaSep 29, 2026
- Benin – MauritaniaSep 29, 2026
- Somalia – Ivory CoastSep 29, 2026
- Gabon – NigerSep 29, 2026
- Congo – CameroonSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Liberia vs Mali prediction?
Our AI gives Liberia a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Mali 42%. Mali are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Liberia vs Mali?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.5%), 1-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Liberia vs Mali?
The probability that both Liberia and Mali score is 52%. Liberia have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Mali 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Liberia vs Mali?
The model expects 2.59 goals (1.19 for Liberia, 1.40 for Mali). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Liberia vs Mali played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, Monrovia.
What form are Liberia and Mali in?
Liberia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Mali: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Liberia vs Mali prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.19 for Liberia, 1.40 for Mali) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Liberia predictions
- All Mali predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology