Skip to content
Elofoot

AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Ghana vs Gambia: 2-4 result and AI prediction review

GhanaGhana2 – 4GambiaGambia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Ghana 2-4 Gambia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Gambia at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (24%): missed.

Match analysis

Ghana and Gambia met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Accra Sports Stadium, Accra. Before kick-off, our model gave Ghana a 26% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Gambia 40%. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (18.8%), followed by 0-1 (17.9%) and 1-0 (13.6%).

Ghana have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Gambia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Ghana score 0.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Gambia score 2.60 and concede 1.80.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ghana and Gambia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ghana or draw" stands at 60%, "Gambia or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 66%.

In short : Our model backs Gambia to edge Ghana (40% probability). On recent form, Ghana have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Gambia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

26%
Ghana (Win)
34%
Draw
40%
Gambia (Win)

Double chance

60%
Ghana or draw
74%
Gambia or draw
66%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Ghana – Gambia. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 72% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Ghana 0-0 Gambia18.8%
Ghana 0-1 Gambia17.9%
Ghana 1-0 Gambia13.6%
Ghana 1-1 Gambia12.9%
Ghana 0-2 Gambia8.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.72 expected goals for Ghana and 0.95 for Gambia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 24% and "both teams to score" at 32%. Few goals are expected here. Ghana keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Gambia in 49%.

Probability
Ghana expected goals0.72
Gambia expected goals0.95
Both teams to score32%
Over 1.5 goals50%
Over 2.5 goals24%
Over 3.5 goals9%
Ghana clean sheet39%
Gambia clean sheet49%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Ghana

DateOpponentScore
Sep 24, 2026Ivory Coast · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers0-2L
Jul 4, 2026Colombia · FIFA World Cup0-1L
Jun 27, 2026Croatia · FIFA World Cup1-2L
Jun 23, 2026England · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 18, 2026Panama · FIFA World Cup1-0W

Gambia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Somalia · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers2-1W
May 29, 2026Iran · International Friendlies1-3L
Mar 31, 2026Senegal · International Friendlies1-3L
Nov 18, 2025Kuwait · International Friendlies2-2D
Oct 14, 2025Seychelles · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa)7-0W

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ghana and Gambia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Ghana

No absences reported.

Gambia

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Ghana

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • G. Mensah5/5
  • A. Semenyo4/5
  • J. Ayew4/5
  • J. Opoku4/5
  • K. Sibo4/5
  • M. Senaya4/5
  • C. Yirenkyi3/5
  • J. Adjetey3/5
  • T. Partey3/5
  • B. Asare2/5
  • D. Luckassen2/5

Gambia

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • S. Sanyang4/4
  • A. Barry3/4
  • A. Saine3/4
  • B. Gaye3/4
  • M. Drammeh3/4
  • O. Colley3/4
  • A. Manneh2/4
  • A. Sidibeh2/4
  • E. Colley2/4
  • J. Ceesay2/4
  • M. Bajo2/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Ghana vs Gambia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Ghana a 26% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Gambia 40%. Gambia are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Ghana vs Gambia?

0-0 (18.8%), followed by 0-1 (17.9%), 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-2 (8.5%).

Will both teams score in Ghana vs Gambia?

The probability that both Ghana and Gambia score is 32%. Ghana have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gambia 49%.

How many goals should we expect in Ghana vs Gambia?

The model expects 1.67 goals (0.72 for Ghana, 0.95 for Gambia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 50%, over 2.5 goals 24%, over 3.5 goals 9%.

When and where is Ghana vs Gambia played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Accra Sports Stadium, Accra.

What form are Ghana and Gambia in?

Ghana: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 5 conceded). Gambia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 9 conceded).

What was the Ghana vs Gambia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Ghana 2-4 Gambia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Gambia at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (24%): missed.

How is the Ghana vs Gambia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.72 for Ghana, 0.95 for Gambia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained