AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Ghana vs Gambia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ghana take on Gambia on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Accra Sports Stadium, Accra. It is a tight call: 28% for Ghana, 34% for the draw and 38% for Gambia. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (19.0%), followed by 0-1 (17.5%) and 1-0 (14.1%).
Ghana have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 5. Gambia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 14 and conceding 12. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Ghana score 0.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Gambia score 2.80 and concede 2.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ghana and Gambia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ghana or draw" stands at 62%, "Gambia or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 66%.
In short : Our model backs Gambia to edge Ghana (38% probability). On recent form, Ghana have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Gambia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ghana – Gambia. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 72% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ghana 0-0 Gambia | 19.0% |
| Ghana 0-1 Gambia | 17.5% |
| Ghana 1-0 Gambia | 14.1% |
| Ghana 1-1 Gambia | 12.9% |
| Ghana 0-2 Gambia | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.74 expected goals for Ghana and 0.92 for Gambia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 23% and "both teams to score" at 32%. Few goals are expected here. Ghana keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Gambia in 48%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ghana expected goals | 0.74 |
| Gambia expected goals | 0.92 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% |
| Ghana clean sheet | 40% |
| Gambia clean sheet | 48% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ghana
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Ivory Coast · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Croatia · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 23, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
Gambia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Iran · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Senegal · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kuwait · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Seychelles · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 7-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Gabon · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 3-4 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ghana and Gambia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Ghana
No absences reported.
Gambia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ghana
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Mensah5/5
- A. Semenyo4/5
- J. Ayew4/5
- J. Opoku4/5
- K. Sibo4/5
- M. Senaya4/5
- C. Yirenkyi3/5
- J. Adjetey3/5
- T. Partey3/5
- B. Asare2/5
- D. Luckassen2/5
Gambia
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Sanyang4/4
- A. Saine3/4
- A. Sidibeh3/4
- B. Gaye3/4
- M. Drammeh3/4
- A. Barry2/4
- A. Manneh2/4
- E. Adams2/4
- J. Ceesay2/4
- J. Gomez2/4
- M. Bajo2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Ghana vs Gambia prediction?
Our AI gives Ghana a 28% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Gambia 38%. Gambia are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Ghana vs Gambia?
0-0 (19.0%), followed by 0-1 (17.5%), 1-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-2 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Ghana vs Gambia?
The probability that both Ghana and Gambia score is 32%. Ghana have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gambia 48%.
How many goals should we expect in Ghana vs Gambia?
The model expects 1.66 goals (0.74 for Ghana, 0.92 for Gambia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 49%, over 2.5 goals 23%, over 3.5 goals 9%.
When and where is Ghana vs Gambia played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Accra Sports Stadium, Accra.
What form are Ghana and Gambia in?
Ghana: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 5 conceded). Gambia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 12 conceded).
How is the Ghana vs Gambia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.74 for Ghana, 0.92 for Gambia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ghana predictions
- All Gambia predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology