AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Ethiopia vs Senegal prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: Ethiopia vs Senegal kicks off on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Our model makes Senegal clear favourites: a 73% chance of winning, against 15% for the draw and 12% for Ethiopia. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.5%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ethiopia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Senegal have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 9. Ethiopia therefore arrive in far better shape than Senegal. On average Ethiopia score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Senegal score 2.00 and concede 1.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ethiopia and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ethiopia or draw" stands at 27%, "Senegal or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Senegal are tipped by our AI model in this Ethiopia v Senegal (73%). On recent form, Ethiopia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Senegal have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ethiopia – Senegal. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ethiopia 1-2 Senegal | 8.5% |
| Ethiopia 1-3 Senegal | 8.2% |
| Ethiopia 0-2 Senegal | 7.6% |
| Ethiopia 0-3 Senegal | 7.3% |
| Ethiopia 1-1 Senegal | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.12 expected goals for Ethiopia and 2.88 for Senegal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 76% and "both teams to score" at 64%. Goals look likely in this one. Ethiopia keep a clean sheet in 6% of scenarios, Senegal in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ethiopia expected goals | 1.12 |
| Senegal expected goals | 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% |
| Ethiopia clean sheet | 6% |
| Senegal clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ethiopia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | São Tomé & Príncipe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | São Tomé & Príncipe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burkina Faso · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-3 | L |
Senegal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iraq · FIFA World Cup | 5-0 | W |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 16, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ethiopia and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Ethiopia
No absences reported.
Senegal
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ethiopia
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Belay2/3
- C. Gugsa2/3
- D. Hotessa2/3
- H. Tekeste2/3
- J. Yakob2/3
- R. James2/3
- S. Yohannes2/3
- W. Gezahegn2/3
- Y. Baye2/3
- A. Ambisa1/3
- A. Biniam1/3
Senegal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Diatta5/5
- M. Niakhate5/5
- S. Mane5/5
- I. Gueye4/5
- I. Sarr4/5
- L. Camara4/5
- E. Mendy3/5
- H. Diarra3/5
- M. Diouf3/5
- P. Gueye3/5
- I. Jakobs2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- South Sudan – EgyptSep 29, 2026
- Lesotho – MoroccoSep 29, 2026
- Burundi – AlgeriaSep 29, 2026
- Zambia – TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda – LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau – NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana – GambiaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ethiopia vs Senegal prediction?
Our AI gives Ethiopia a 12% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Senegal 73%. Senegal are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Ethiopia vs Senegal?
1-2 (8.5%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.6%), 0-3 (7.3%) and 1-1 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Ethiopia vs Senegal?
The probability that both Ethiopia and Senegal score is 64%. Ethiopia have a 6% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Senegal 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Ethiopia vs Senegal?
The model expects 4.00 goals (1.12 for Ethiopia, 2.88 for Senegal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 76%, over 3.5 goals 57%.
When and where is Ethiopia vs Senegal played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers.
What form are Ethiopia and Senegal in?
Ethiopia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Senegal: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
How is the Ethiopia vs Senegal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.12 for Ethiopia, 2.88 for Senegal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ethiopia predictions
- All Senegal predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology