Skip to content
Elofoot

AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Ethiopia vs Senegal: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

EthiopiaEthiopia0 – 1SenegalSenegal

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Senegal at 73%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.3%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): missed.

Match analysis

Ethiopia and Senegal met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Bahir Dar Stadium, Bahir Dar. Before kick-off, our model gave Ethiopia a 12% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Senegal 73%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.5%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Ethiopia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Senegal have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 11 and conceding 10. Ethiopia therefore arrive in far better shape than Senegal. On average Ethiopia score 1.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Senegal score 2.20 and concede 2.00.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ethiopia and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ethiopia or draw" stands at 27%, "Senegal or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 85%.

In short : Senegal are tipped by our AI model in this Ethiopia v Senegal (73%). On recent form, Ethiopia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Senegal have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

12%
Ethiopia (Win)
15%
Draw
73%
Senegal (Win)

Double chance

27%
Ethiopia or draw
88%
Senegal or draw
85%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Ethiopia – Senegal. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Ethiopia 1-2 Senegal8.5%
Ethiopia 1-3 Senegal8.2%
Ethiopia 0-2 Senegal7.6%
Ethiopia 0-3 Senegal7.3%
Ethiopia 1-1 Senegal5.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.12 expected goals for Ethiopia and 2.88 for Senegal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 76% and "both teams to score" at 64%. Goals look likely in this one. Ethiopia keep a clean sheet in 6% of scenarios, Senegal in 33%.

Probability
Ethiopia expected goals1.12
Senegal expected goals2.88
Both teams to score64%
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Ethiopia clean sheet6%
Senegal clean sheet33%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Ethiopia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Sudan · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers0-1L
Jun 9, 2026Malawi · International Friendlies1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Malawi · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 31, 2026São Tomé & Príncipe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-0W
Mar 27, 2026São Tomé & Príncipe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers3-0W

Senegal

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Mozambique · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-1D
Jul 1, 2026Belgium · FIFA World Cup2-3L
Jun 26, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup5-0W
Jun 23, 2026Norway · FIFA World Cup2-3L
Jun 16, 2026France · FIFA World Cup1-3L

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ethiopia and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Ethiopia

No absences reported.

Senegal

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Ethiopia

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Belay2/3
  • D. Hotessa2/3
  • H. Tekeste2/3
  • J. Yakob2/3
  • S. Yohannes2/3
  • Y. Baye2/3
  • A. Ambisa1/3
  • A. Biniam1/3
  • A. Nuri1/3
  • A. Yalew1/3
  • Abubeker Ambisa1/3

Senegal

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • I. Gueye4/4
  • I. Sarr4/4
  • K. Diatta4/4
  • M. Niakhate4/4
  • S. Mane4/4
  • L. Camara3/4
  • P. Gueye3/4
  • E. Mendy2/4
  • H. Diarra2/4
  • I. Jakobs2/4
  • K. Koulibaly2/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Ethiopia vs Senegal prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Ethiopia a 12% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Senegal 73%. Senegal are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Ethiopia vs Senegal?

1-2 (8.5%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.6%), 0-3 (7.3%) and 1-1 (5.9%).

Will both teams score in Ethiopia vs Senegal?

The probability that both Ethiopia and Senegal score is 64%. Ethiopia have a 6% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Senegal 33%.

How many goals should we expect in Ethiopia vs Senegal?

The model expects 4.00 goals (1.12 for Ethiopia, 2.88 for Senegal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 76%, over 3.5 goals 57%.

When and where is Ethiopia vs Senegal played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Bahir Dar Stadium, Bahir Dar.

What form are Ethiopia and Senegal in?

Ethiopia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded). Senegal: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 10 conceded).

What was the Ethiopia vs Senegal result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Senegal at 73%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.3%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): missed.

How is the Ethiopia vs Senegal prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.12 for Ethiopia, 2.88 for Senegal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained