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AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Lesotho vs Morocco: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

LesothoLesotho0 – 2MoroccoMorocco

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 0-2

Final score: Lesotho 0-2 Morocco. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Morocco at 65%. The exact score 0-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.

Match analysis

Lesotho and Morocco met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Before kick-off, our model gave Lesotho a 16% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Morocco 65%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-1 (8.9%).

Lesotho have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Morocco therefore arrive in far better shape than Lesotho. On average Lesotho score 0.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Morocco score 2.00 and concede 1.00.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lesotho, 2 for Morocco and 0 draws. The most recent ended Morocco 7-0 Lesotho (Nov 18, 2024). In double chance terms, "Lesotho or draw" stands at 35%, "Morocco or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 81%.

In short : Morocco are tipped by our AI model in this Lesotho v Morocco (65%). On recent form, Lesotho have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

16%
Lesotho (Win)
19%
Draw
65%
Morocco (Win)

Double chance

35%
Lesotho or draw
84%
Morocco or draw
81%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Lesotho – Morocco. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Lesotho 0-2 Morocco9.8%
Lesotho 1-2 Morocco9.8%
Lesotho 0-1 Morocco8.9%
Lesotho 1-1 Morocco8.9%
Lesotho 0-3 Morocco7.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.00 expected goals for Lesotho and 2.22 for Morocco, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 56%. Goals look likely in this one. Lesotho keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Morocco in 37%.

Probability
Lesotho expected goals1.00
Morocco expected goals2.22
Both teams to score56%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Lesotho clean sheet11%
Morocco clean sheet37%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Lesotho

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Niger · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-2L
Jun 7, 2026Kenya · International Friendlies0-4L
Jun 4, 2026Kenya · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 29, 2026Seychelles · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers2-1W
Mar 26, 2026Seychelles · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers0-0D

Morocco

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Gabon · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers2-0W
Jul 9, 2026France · FIFA World Cup0-2L
Jul 4, 2026Canada · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 30, 2026Netherlands · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 24, 2026Haiti · FIFA World Cup4-2W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 18, 2024Morocco 7-0 LesothoAFCON 2027 Qualifiers
Sep 9, 2024Lesotho 0-1 MoroccoAFCON 2027 Qualifiers

Out and doubtful

Lesotho

No absences reported.

Morocco

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Lesotho

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • T. Makhele3/3
  • L. Fothoane2/3
  • M. Makhetha2/3
  • S. Motebang2/3
  • I. Falene1/3
  • Itumeleng Kenneth Falene1/3
  • K. Kharejane1/3
  • K. Koaeane1/3
  • K. Rapuleng1/3
  • Katleho Koeane1/3
  • Koete Mohloai1/3

Morocco

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • N. El Aynaoui5/5
  • A. Bouaddi4/5
  • A. Hakimi4/5
  • A. Ounahi4/5
  • B. Diaz4/5
  • B. El Khannouss4/5
  • Bono4/5
  • I. Diop4/5
  • N. Mazraoui4/5
  • I. Saibari3/5
  • A. Salah-Eddine2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lesotho vs Morocco prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Lesotho a 16% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Morocco 65%. Morocco are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Lesotho vs Morocco?

0-2 (9.8%), followed by 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.9%) and 0-3 (7.3%).

Will both teams score in Lesotho vs Morocco?

The probability that both Lesotho and Morocco score is 56%. Lesotho have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Morocco 37%.

How many goals should we expect in Lesotho vs Morocco?

The model expects 3.22 goals (1.00 for Lesotho, 2.22 for Morocco). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.

When and where is Lesotho vs Morocco played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers.

What form are Lesotho and Morocco in?

Lesotho: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded). Morocco: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Lesotho and Morocco?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lesotho, 2 for Morocco and 0 draws. The most recent ended Morocco 7-0 Lesotho (Nov 18, 2024).

What was the Lesotho vs Morocco result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Lesotho 0-2 Morocco. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Morocco at 65%. The exact score 0-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.

How is the Lesotho vs Morocco prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.00 for Lesotho, 2.22 for Morocco) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained