AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Lesotho vs Morocco prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: Lesotho vs Morocco kicks off on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Our model makes Morocco clear favourites: a 62% chance of winning, against 21% for the draw and 17% for Lesotho. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (9.9%), followed by 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.7%).
Lesotho have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Morocco therefore arrive in far better shape than Lesotho. On average Lesotho score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Morocco score 1.80 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lesotho and Morocco: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Lesotho or draw" stands at 38%, "Morocco or draw" at 83% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Morocco are tipped by our AI model in this Lesotho v Morocco (62%). On recent form, Lesotho have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lesotho – Morocco. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lesotho 0-2 Morocco | 9.9% |
| Lesotho 1-2 Morocco | 9.9% |
| Lesotho 0-1 Morocco | 9.7% |
| Lesotho 1-1 Morocco | 9.7% |
| Lesotho 0-3 Morocco | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.00 expected goals for Lesotho and 2.06 for Morocco, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Goals look likely in this one. Lesotho keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Morocco in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lesotho expected goals | 1.00 |
| Morocco expected goals | 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Lesotho clean sheet | 13% |
| Morocco clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lesotho
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Seychelles · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 0-0 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malawi · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Morocco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Haiti · FIFA World Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Scotland · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lesotho and Morocco: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Lesotho
No absences reported.
Morocco
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Lesotho
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Fothoane2/3
- S. Motebang2/3
- T. Makhele2/3
- Fusi Matlabe1/3
- I. Falene1/3
- K. Kharejane1/3
- K. Koaeane1/3
- K. Rapuleng1/3
- Kananelo Rapuleng1/3
- L. Mofoka1/3
- M. Makhetha1/3
Morocco
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hakimi4/5
- B. Diaz4/5
- B. El Khannouss4/5
- Bono4/5
- I. Saibari4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- A. Bouaddi3/5
- A. Ounahi3/5
- C. Riad3/5
- I. Diop3/5
- N. Mazraoui3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Lesotho vs Morocco prediction?
Our AI gives Lesotho a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Morocco 62%. Morocco are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lesotho vs Morocco?
0-2 (9.9%), followed by 1-2 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.7%) and 0-3 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Lesotho vs Morocco?
The probability that both Lesotho and Morocco score is 55%. Lesotho have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Morocco 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Lesotho vs Morocco?
The model expects 3.06 goals (1.00 for Lesotho, 2.06 for Morocco). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Lesotho vs Morocco played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers.
What form are Lesotho and Morocco in?
Lesotho: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Morocco: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Lesotho vs Morocco prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.00 for Lesotho, 2.06 for Morocco) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lesotho predictions
- All Morocco predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology