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AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Cape Verde vs Rwanda: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

Cape VerdeCape Verde1 – 2RwandaRwanda

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Cape Verde 1-2 Rwanda. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cape Verde (64%), while victory for Rwanda was rated at only 11%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (2.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.

Match analysis

Cape Verde and Rwanda met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Estadio Nacional de Cabo Verde, Praia. Before kick-off, our model gave Cape Verde a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rwanda 11%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (20.6%), followed by 2-0 (15.9%) and 0-0 (13.4%).

Cape Verde have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Rwanda have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Rwanda therefore arrive in far better shape than Cape Verde. On average Cape Verde score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Rwanda score 1.80 and concede 1.00.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cape Verde, 0 for Rwanda and 2 draws. The most recent ended Rwanda 0-0 Cape Verde (Nov 17, 2020). In double chance terms, "Cape Verde or draw" stands at 89%, "Rwanda or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Our model backs Cape Verde to edge Rwanda (64% probability). On recent form, Cape Verde have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Rwanda have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

64%
Cape Verde (Win)
25%
Draw
11%
Rwanda (Win)

Double chance

89%
Cape Verde or draw
36%
Rwanda or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Cape Verde – Rwanda. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (20.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Cape Verde 1-0 Rwanda20.6%
Cape Verde 2-0 Rwanda15.9%
Cape Verde 0-0 Rwanda13.4%
Cape Verde 1-1 Rwanda9.7%
Cape Verde 3-0 Rwanda8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.54 expected goals for Cape Verde and 0.47 for Rwanda, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 33% and "both teams to score" at 30%. Few goals are expected here. Cape Verde keep a clean sheet in 63% of scenarios, Rwanda in 21%.

Probability
Cape Verde expected goals1.54
Rwanda expected goals0.47
Both teams to score30%
Over 1.5 goals60%
Over 2.5 goals33%
Over 3.5 goals15%
Cape Verde clean sheet63%
Rwanda clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Cape Verde

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Mali · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers1-3L
Jul 3, 2026Argentina · FIFA World Cup2-3L
Jun 27, 2026Saudi Arabia · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 21, 2026Uruguay · FIFA World Cup2-2D
Jun 15, 2026Spain · FIFA World Cup0-0D

Rwanda

DateOpponentScore
Sep 25, 2026Liberia · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers3-1W
Mar 30, 2026Estonia · FIFA Series2-0W
Mar 27, 2026Grenada · FIFA Series4-0W
Oct 14, 2025South Africa · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa)0-3L
Oct 10, 2025Benin · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa)0-1L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 17, 2020Rwanda 0-0 Cape VerdeAFCON 2027 Qualifiers
Nov 12, 2020Cape Verde 0-0 RwandaAFCON 2027 Qualifiers

Out and doubtful

Cape Verde

No absences reported.

Rwanda

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Cape Verde

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Borges4/5
  • K. Lenini4/5
  • R. Lopes4/5
  • R. Mendes4/5
  • S. Lopes Cabral4/5
  • Vozinha4/5
  • J. Monteiro3/5
  • S. Moreira3/5
  • D. Duarte2/5
  • D. Livramento2/5
  • J. Cabral2/5

Rwanda

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Mutsinzi5/5
  • J. Kwizera5/5
  • B. Mugisha4/5
  • C. Niyomugabo4/5
  • D. Bizimana4/5
  • P. Kavita4/5
  • F. Ntwari3/5
  • G. Byiringiro3/5
  • J. Mickels3/5
  • L. Mickels3/5
  • A. Biramahire2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Cape Verde vs Rwanda prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Cape Verde a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rwanda 11%. Cape Verde are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Cape Verde vs Rwanda?

1-0 (20.6%), followed by 2-0 (15.9%), 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (9.7%) and 3-0 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in Cape Verde vs Rwanda?

The probability that both Cape Verde and Rwanda score is 30%. Cape Verde have a 63% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Rwanda 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Cape Verde vs Rwanda?

The model expects 2.01 goals (1.54 for Cape Verde, 0.47 for Rwanda). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.

When and where is Cape Verde vs Rwanda played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Estadio Nacional de Cabo Verde, Praia.

What form are Cape Verde and Rwanda in?

Cape Verde: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Rwanda: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Cape Verde and Rwanda?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cape Verde, 0 for Rwanda and 2 draws. The most recent ended Rwanda 0-0 Cape Verde (Nov 17, 2020).

What was the Cape Verde vs Rwanda result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Cape Verde 1-2 Rwanda. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cape Verde (64%), while victory for Rwanda was rated at only 11%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (2.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.

How is the Cape Verde vs Rwanda prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for Cape Verde, 0.47 for Rwanda) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained