AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Benin vs Mauritania: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Benin 2-1 Mauritania. The 1X2 prediction came good: a draw was the model's favourite outcome (35%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (22%): missed.
Match analysis
Benin vs Mauritania was played on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara, Abidjan. Before kick-off, our model gave Benin a 35% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Mauritania 29%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (20.2%), ahead of 1-0 (17.2%) and 0-1 (15.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Benin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Mauritania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Benin score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Mauritania score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Benin sit 3rd with 1 points from 1 games, Mauritania 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Benin, 1 for Mauritania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Benin 3-1 Mauritania (Jun 18, 2019). In double chance terms, "Benin or draw" stands at 71%, "Mauritania or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 65%.
In short : Benin and Mauritania meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 35%). In the table, Benin (3rd, 1 pts) host Mauritania (2nd, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Benin – Mauritania. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (20.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 73% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Benin 0-0 Mauritania | 20.2% |
| Benin 1-0 Mauritania | 17.2% |
| Benin 0-1 Mauritania | 15.1% |
| Benin 1-1 Mauritania | 12.9% |
| Benin 2-0 Mauritania | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.60 goals in total (0.85 for Benin, 0.75 for Mauritania): over 2.5 goals has a 22% probability and both teams to score 30%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Benin keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Mauritania in 43%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Benin expected goals | 0.85 |
| Mauritania expected goals | 0.75 |
| Both teams to score | 30% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% |
| Benin clean sheet | 47% |
| Mauritania clean sheet | 43% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Benin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Burkina Faso · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Togo · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Niger · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Liberia · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Mauritania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Central African Republic · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Niger · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Angola · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Kuwait · Arab Cup | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benin | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Mauritania | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2019 | Benin 3-1 Mauritania | International Friendlies |
| Mar 24, 2017 | Mauritania 1-0 Benin | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Benin
No absences reported.
Mauritania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Benin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Imourane5/5
- M. Dandjinou5/5
- M. Tijani5/5
- A. Samadou4/5
- C. Azongnitode4/5
- F. Santos4/5
- J. Olaitan3/5
- Y. Roche3/5
- D. Dodo2/5
- L. Omore2/5
- M. Boni2/5
Mauritania
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Abeid2/4
- B. Lekoueiry2/4
- D. Gassama2/4
- I. Keita2/4
- J. Lefort2/4
- L. Ba2/4
- M. Diop2/4
- M. Magassa2/4
- O. Ngom2/4
- A. Al Dhefiri1/4
- A. Koita1/4
Other matches in this competition
- Madagascar 1-1 TanzaniaSep 29, 2026
- Zambia 2-0 TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda 1-0 LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau 3-0 NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana 2-4 GambiaSep 29, 2026
- Cape Verde 1-2 RwandaSep 29, 2026
- Somalia 0-2 Ivory CoastSep 29, 2026
- Liberia 0-1 MaliSep 29, 2026
- Gabon 2-0 NigerSep 29, 2026
- Congo 1-1 CameroonSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Benin vs Mauritania prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Benin a 35% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Mauritania 29%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Benin vs Mauritania?
0-0 (20.2%), followed by 1-0 (17.2%), 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (12.9%) and 2-0 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Benin vs Mauritania?
The probability that both Benin and Mauritania score is 30%. Benin have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Mauritania 43%.
How many goals should we expect in Benin vs Mauritania?
The model expects 1.60 goals (0.85 for Benin, 0.75 for Mauritania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 48%, over 2.5 goals 22%, over 3.5 goals 8%.
When and where is Benin vs Mauritania played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara, Abidjan.
What form are Benin and Mauritania in?
Benin: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Mauritania: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Benin and Mauritania?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Benin, 1 for Mauritania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Benin 3-1 Mauritania (Jun 18, 2019).
What was the Benin vs Mauritania result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Benin 2-1 Mauritania. The 1X2 prediction came good: a draw was the model's favourite outcome (35%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (22%): missed.
How is the Benin vs Mauritania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.85 for Benin, 0.75 for Mauritania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Benin predictions
- All Mauritania predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology