AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Equatorial Guinea take on Sierra Leone on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo. Equatorial Guinea start as favourites with a 54% chance of victory; Sierra Leone are given 22% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (9.9%).
Equatorial Guinea have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Sierra Leone have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Sierra Leone therefore arrive in far better shape than Equatorial Guinea. On average Equatorial Guinea score 0.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Sierra Leone score 1.40 and concede 1.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Equatorial Guinea or draw" stands at 78%, "Sierra Leone or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Equatorial Guinea are favourites for this Equatorial Guinea v Sierra Leone, with a 54% win probability from our model. On recent form, Equatorial Guinea are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Sierra Leone have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Equatorial Guinea – Sierra Leone. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone | 11.7% |
| Equatorial Guinea 1-1 Sierra Leone | 11.4% |
| Equatorial Guinea 2-0 Sierra Leone | 9.9% |
| Equatorial Guinea 2-1 Sierra Leone | 9.7% |
| Equatorial Guinea 0-0 Sierra Leone | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.70 expected goals for Equatorial Guinea and 0.98 for Sierra Leone, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Equatorial Guinea keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Sierra Leone in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Equatorial Guinea expected goals | 1.70 |
| Sierra Leone expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Equatorial Guinea clean sheet | 38% |
| Sierra Leone clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Equatorial Guinea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | Algeria · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-3 | L |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sudan · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Burkina Faso · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Liberia · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Tunisia · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-1 | L |
Sierra Leone
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Zimbabwe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Liberia · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Liberia · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Azerbaijan · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Djibouti · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 2-1 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Equatorial Guinea
No absences reported.
Sierra Leone
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sierra Leone
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Turay4/5
- I. Kanu4/5
- A. Jarjue Kabia3/5
- M. Kamara3/5
- S. Tarawallie3/5
- A. Bakayoko2/5
- A. Koroma2/5
- A. Sesay2/5
- D. Kanu2/5
- J. Bah2/5
- M. Jalloh2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Comoros – NamibiaSep 29, 2026
- Ethiopia – SenegalSep 29, 2026
- Mozambique – SudanSep 29, 2026
- Madagascar – TanzaniaSep 29, 2026
- South Sudan – EgyptSep 29, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone prediction?
Our AI gives Equatorial Guinea a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sierra Leone 22%. Equatorial Guinea are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
The probability that both Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone score is 51%. Equatorial Guinea have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sierra Leone 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.70 for Equatorial Guinea, 0.98 for Sierra Leone). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo.
What form are Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone in?
Equatorial Guinea: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded). Sierra Leone: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.70 for Equatorial Guinea, 0.98 for Sierra Leone) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Equatorial Guinea predictions
- All Sierra Leone predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology