Skip to content
Elofoot

AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea1 – 0Sierra LeoneSierra Leone

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Equatorial Guinea at 57%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone met on Monday, September 28, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo, Yaounde. Before kick-off, our model gave Equatorial Guinea a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sierra Leone 20%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-0 (10.3%).

Equatorial Guinea have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Sierra Leone have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Equatorial Guinea score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Sierra Leone score 1.40 and concede 1.60.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Equatorial Guinea, 0 for Sierra Leone and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sierra Leone 0-1 Equatorial Guinea (Jan 20, 2022). In double chance terms, "Equatorial Guinea or draw" stands at 80%, "Sierra Leone or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.

In short : Equatorial Guinea are favourites for this Equatorial Guinea v Sierra Leone, with a 57% win probability from our model. On recent form, Equatorial Guinea have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Sierra Leone have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

57%
Equatorial Guinea (Win)
23%
Draw
20%
Sierra Leone (Win)

Double chance

80%
Equatorial Guinea or draw
43%
Sierra Leone or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Equatorial Guinea – Sierra Leone. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone11.7%
Equatorial Guinea 1-1 Sierra Leone11.1%
Equatorial Guinea 2-0 Sierra Leone10.3%
Equatorial Guinea 2-1 Sierra Leone9.8%
Equatorial Guinea 0-0 Sierra Leone6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.76 expected goals for Equatorial Guinea and 0.95 for Sierra Leone, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Equatorial Guinea keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Sierra Leone in 17%.

Probability
Equatorial Guinea expected goals1.76
Sierra Leone expected goals0.95
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Equatorial Guinea clean sheet39%
Sierra Leone clean sheet17%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Equatorial Guinea

DateOpponentScore
Sep 24, 2026DR Congo · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers0-2L
Jun 9, 2026Comoros · International Friendlies0-1L
Mar 31, 2026Madagascar · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 25, 2026Kyrgyzstan · International Friendlies1-0W
Dec 31, 2025Algeria · Africa Cup of Nations1-3L

Sierra Leone

DateOpponentScore
Sep 24, 2026Zimbabwe · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers2-3L
Jun 9, 2026Liberia · International Friendlies1-3L
Jun 6, 2026Liberia · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 30, 2026Azerbaijan · FIFA Series1-1D
Oct 12, 2025Djibouti · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa)2-1W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 20, 2022Sierra Leone 0-1 Equatorial GuineaAfrica Cup of Nations

Out and doubtful

Equatorial Guinea

No absences reported.

Sierra Leone

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Equatorial Guinea

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Balboa2/3
  • S. Coco2/3
  • A. Masogo1/3
  • Álex Balboa1/3
  • C. Ondo1/3
  • Charles Ondo1/3
  • Dorian Hanza1/3
  • E. Nsue1/3
  • E. Orozco1/3
  • Esteban Obiang1/3
  • F. Bikoro1/3

Sierra Leone

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Turay4/5
  • I. Kanu4/5
  • A. Jarjue Kabia3/5
  • M. Kamara3/5
  • S. Tarawallie3/5
  • A. Bakayoko2/5
  • A. Koroma2/5
  • A. Sesay2/5
  • D. Kanu2/5
  • J. Bah2/5
  • M. Jalloh2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Equatorial Guinea a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sierra Leone 20%. Equatorial Guinea are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?

The probability that both Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone score is 51%. Equatorial Guinea have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sierra Leone 17%.

How many goals should we expect in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?

The model expects 2.71 goals (1.76 for Equatorial Guinea, 0.95 for Sierra Leone). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone played?

Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo, Yaounde.

What form are Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone in?

Equatorial Guinea: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Sierra Leone: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Equatorial Guinea, 0 for Sierra Leone and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sierra Leone 0-1 Equatorial Guinea (Jan 20, 2022).

What was the Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Equatorial Guinea at 57%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.76 for Equatorial Guinea, 0.95 for Sierra Leone) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained