AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Tunisia vs Botswana: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Tunisia 2-2 Botswana. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Tunisia (80%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Tunisia vs Botswana was played on Monday, September 28, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi. Before kick-off, our model gave Tunisia a 80% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Botswana 5%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (18.3%), ahead of 1-0 (16.4%) and 3-0 (13.6%).
Tunisia have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 18. Botswana have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Botswana. On average Tunisia score 0.60 and concede 3.60 goals per game; Botswana score 0.60 and concede 1.80.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tunisia, 0 for Botswana and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tunisia 3-0 Botswana (Sep 7, 2023). In double chance terms, "Tunisia or draw" stands at 95%, "Botswana or draw" at 20% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Tunisia are tipped by our AI model in this Tunisia v Botswana (80%). On recent form, Tunisia are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Botswana have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Tunisia – Botswana. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tunisia 2-0 Botswana | 18.3% |
| Tunisia 1-0 Botswana | 16.4% |
| Tunisia 3-0 Botswana | 13.6% |
| Tunisia 4-0 Botswana | 7.6% |
| Tunisia 0-0 Botswana | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.61 goals in total (2.23 for Tunisia, 0.38 for Botswana): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 28%. Tunisia keep a clean sheet in 68% of scenarios, Botswana in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Tunisia expected goals | 2.23 |
| Botswana expected goals | 0.38 |
| Both teams to score | 28% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Tunisia clean sheet | 68% |
| Botswana clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Tunisia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uganda · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 0-4 | L |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Belgium · International Friendlies | 0-5 | L |
Botswana
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Libya · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malawi · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zimbabwe · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Dec 30, 2025 | DR Congo · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-3 | L |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Benin · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2023 | Tunisia 3-0 Botswana | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
| Jun 5, 2022 | Botswana 0-0 Tunisia | AFCON 2027 Qualifiers |
Out and doubtful
Tunisia
No absences reported.
Botswana
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Tunisia
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Skhiri4/4
- M. Talbi4/4
- A. Abdi3/4
- A. Slimane3/4
- H. Mejbri3/4
- M. Ben Hamida3/4
- O. Rekik3/4
- Y. Valery3/4
- A. Chamakh2/4
- A. Dahmen2/4
- E. Saad2/4
Botswana
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Mohutsiwa3/5
- G. Phoko3/5
- B. Sakana2/5
- K. Seakanyeng2/5
- L. Ratshukudu2/5
- M. Gaolaolwe2/5
- M. Johnson2/5
- R. Ratlhogo2/5
- T. Ditlhokwe2/5
- T. Kopelang2/5
- A. Velaphi1/5
Other matches in this competition
- Central African Republic 0-1 Burkina FasoSep 28, 2026
- Zimbabwe 1-2 DR CongoSep 28, 2026
- Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra LeoneSep 28, 2026
- Comoros 1-0 NamibiaSep 29, 2026
- Ethiopia 0-1 SenegalSep 29, 2026
- Mozambique 4-1 SudanSep 29, 2026
- South Sudan 0-5 EgyptSep 29, 2026
- Lesotho 0-2 MoroccoSep 29, 2026
- Burundi 2-2 AlgeriaSep 29, 2026
- Madagascar 1-1 TanzaniaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Tunisia vs Botswana prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Tunisia a 80% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Botswana 5%. Tunisia are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Tunisia vs Botswana?
2-0 (18.3%), followed by 1-0 (16.4%), 3-0 (13.6%), 4-0 (7.6%) and 0-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Botswana?
The probability that both Tunisia and Botswana score is 28%. Tunisia have a 68% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Botswana 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Tunisia vs Botswana?
The model expects 2.61 goals (2.23 for Tunisia, 0.38 for Botswana). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Tunisia vs Botswana played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi.
What form are Tunisia and Botswana in?
Tunisia: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 18 conceded). Botswana: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Tunisia and Botswana?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tunisia, 0 for Botswana and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tunisia 3-0 Botswana (Sep 7, 2023).
What was the Tunisia vs Botswana result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Tunisia 2-2 Botswana. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Tunisia (80%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Tunisia vs Botswana prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.23 for Tunisia, 0.38 for Botswana) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Tunisia predictions
- All Botswana predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology