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AFCON 2027 QualifiersAFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Kenya vs Eritrea: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

KenyaKenya1 – 1EritreaEritrea

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Kenya 1-1 Eritrea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Kenya (66%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.

Match analysis

Kenya vs Eritrea was played on Saturday, September 26, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi. Before kick-off, our model gave Kenya a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Eritrea 14%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, Kenya have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Eritrea have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Kenya score 1.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Eritrea score 0.80 and concede 1.20.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Kenya, 1 for Eritrea and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kenya 1-4 Eritrea (Dec 17, 2019). In double chance terms, "Kenya or draw" stands at 86%, "Eritrea or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.

In short : Kenya are favourites for this Kenya v Eritrea, with a 66% win probability from our model. On recent form, Kenya have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Eritrea have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

66%
Kenya (Win)
20%
Draw
14%
Eritrea (Win)

Double chance

86%
Kenya or draw
34%
Eritrea or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Kenya – Eritrea. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Kenya 2-0 Eritrea12.0%
Kenya 1-0 Eritrea11.7%
Kenya 2-1 Eritrea9.7%
Kenya 1-1 Eritrea9.5%
Kenya 3-0 Eritrea8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.86 goals in total (2.05 for Kenya, 0.81 for Eritrea): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 48%. Kenya keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Eritrea in 13%.

Probability
Kenya expected goals2.05
Eritrea expected goals0.81
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Kenya clean sheet45%
Eritrea clean sheet13%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Kenya

DateOpponentScore
Jun 7, 2026Lesotho · International Friendlies4-0W
Jun 4, 2026Lesotho · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 30, 2026Grenada · FIFA Series3-0W
Mar 27, 2026Estonia · FIFA Series1-1D
Nov 18, 2025Senegal · International Friendlies0-8L

Eritrea

DateOpponentScore
Mar 31, 2026Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers2-1W
Mar 25, 2026Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers2-0W
May 28, 2025Niger · International Friendlies0-1L
Jan 25, 2020Sudan · International Friendlies0-1L
Dec 19, 2019Uganda · CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup0-3L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Dec 17, 2019Kenya 1-4 EritreaCECAFA Senior Challenge Cup

Out and doubtful

Kenya

No absences reported.

Eritrea

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Kenya

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • R. Onyango4/5
  • A. Odhiambo3/5
  • A. Omija3/5
  • F. Odhiambo3/5
  • R. Odada3/5
  • W. Wilson3/5
  • B. Bwire2/5
  • B. S. Omondi2/5
  • C. Oduor2/5
  • D. Abuya2/5
  • M. Bajaber2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Kenya vs Eritrea prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Kenya a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Eritrea 14%. Kenya are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Kenya vs Eritrea?

2-0 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in Kenya vs Eritrea?

The probability that both Kenya and Eritrea score is 48%. Kenya have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Eritrea 13%.

How many goals should we expect in Kenya vs Eritrea?

The model expects 2.86 goals (2.05 for Kenya, 0.81 for Eritrea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.

When and where is Kenya vs Eritrea played?

Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi.

What form are Kenya and Eritrea in?

Kenya: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Eritrea: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Kenya and Eritrea?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Kenya, 1 for Eritrea and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kenya 1-4 Eritrea (Dec 17, 2019).

What was the Kenya vs Eritrea result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Kenya 1-1 Eritrea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Kenya (66%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.

How is the Kenya vs Eritrea prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.05 for Kenya, 0.81 for Eritrea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained