AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Kenya vs Eritrea prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: Kenya vs Eritrea kicks off on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Venue: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi. With a 67% win probability, Kenya go in as strong favourites against Eritrea (13%), with the draw rated at 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Kenya have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Eritrea have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Kenya. On average Kenya score 2.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Eritrea score 0.80 and concede 1.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Kenya and Eritrea: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Kenya or draw" stands at 87%, "Eritrea or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Kenya are favourites for this Kenya v Eritrea, with a 67% win probability from our model. On recent form, Kenya have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Eritrea have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Kenya – Eritrea. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kenya 2-0 Eritrea | 12.1% |
| Kenya 1-0 Eritrea | 11.6% |
| Kenya 2-1 Eritrea | 9.7% |
| Kenya 1-1 Eritrea | 9.3% |
| Kenya 3-0 Eritrea | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.89 goals in total (2.09 for Kenya, 0.80 for Eritrea): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 48%. Kenya keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Eritrea in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Kenya expected goals | 2.09 |
| Eritrea expected goals | 0.80 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Kenya clean sheet | 45% |
| Eritrea clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Kenya
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Grenada · FIFA Series | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Estonia · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Ivory Coast · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Burundi · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Seychelles · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 5-0 | W |
Eritrea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-0 | W |
| May 28, 2025 | Niger · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Sudan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Dec 19, 2019 | Uganda · CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup | 0-3 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Kenya and Eritrea: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Kenya
No absences reported.
Eritrea
No absences reported.
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Kenya vs Eritrea prediction?
Our AI gives Kenya a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Eritrea 13%. Kenya are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Kenya vs Eritrea?
2-0 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.6%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%) and 3-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Kenya vs Eritrea?
The probability that both Kenya and Eritrea score is 48%. Kenya have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Eritrea 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Kenya vs Eritrea?
The model expects 2.89 goals (2.09 for Kenya, 0.80 for Eritrea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Kenya vs Eritrea played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi.
What form are Kenya and Eritrea in?
Kenya: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded). Eritrea: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Kenya vs Eritrea prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.09 for Kenya, 0.80 for Eritrea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Kenya predictions
- All Eritrea predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology