AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
South Africa vs Guinea: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: South Africa 2-1 Guinea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Guinea (41%), while victory for South Africa was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.9%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (26%): missed.
Match analysis
South Africa and Guinea met on Saturday, September 26, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Orlando Stadium, Johannesburg. Before kick-off, our model gave South Africa a 26% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Guinea 41%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (17.4%), followed by 0-0 (16.9%) and 1-1 (13.0%).
South Africa have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 5. Guinea have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average South Africa score 0.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Guinea score 1.00 and concede 1.00.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for South Africa, 0 for Guinea and 1 draw. The most recent ended South Africa 2-1 Guinea (Aug 11, 2025). In double chance terms, "South Africa or draw" stands at 59%, "Guinea or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 67%.
In short : Guinea are tipped by our AI model in this South Africa v Guinea (41%). On recent form, South Africa have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Guinea have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as South Africa – Guinea. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (17.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 69% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| South Africa 0-1 Guinea | 17.4% |
| South Africa 0-0 Guinea | 16.9% |
| South Africa 1-1 Guinea | 13.0% |
| South Africa 1-0 Guinea | 12.6% |
| South Africa 0-2 Guinea | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.75 expected goals for South Africa and 1.03 for Guinea, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 26% and "both teams to score" at 34%. Few goals are expected here. South Africa keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Guinea in 47%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| South Africa expected goals | 0.75 |
| Guinea expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 34% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% |
| South Africa clean sheet | 36% |
| Guinea clean sheet | 47% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
South Africa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 25, 2026 | South Korea · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Czechia · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Jamaica · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Guinea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Benin · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Togo · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Niger · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Liberia · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2025 | South Africa 2-1 Guinea | African Nations Championship |
| Mar 25, 2022 | South Africa 0-0 Guinea | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
South Africa
No absences reported.
Guinea
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
South Africa
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Modiba4/4
- I. Okon4/4
- K. Mudau4/4
- M. Mbokazi4/4
- R. Williams4/4
- O. Appollis3/4
- T. Maseko3/4
- T. Mokoena3/4
- Y. Sithole3/4
- E. Makgopa2/4
- I. Rayners2/4
Guinea
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Sylla4/3
- M. Soumah3/3
- A. K. Traore2/3
- I. Fofana2/3
- M. Konate2/3
- O. Camara2/3
- S. Cisse2/3
- A. Bah1/3
- A. Camara1/3
- A. Diawara1/3
- I. Bangoura1/3
Other matches in this competition
- Malawi 2-1 South SudanSep 25, 2026
- Togo 1-0 BurundiSep 25, 2026
- Nigeria 2-1 MadagascarSep 25, 2026
- Gambia 2-1 SomaliaSep 25, 2026
- Mali 3-1 Cape VerdeSep 25, 2026
- Egypt 0-0 AngolaSep 25, 2026
- Burkina Faso 1-1 BeninSep 25, 2026
- Morocco 2-0 GabonSep 25, 2026
- Algeria 3-1 ZambiaSep 25, 2026
- Kenya 1-1 EritreaSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the South Africa vs Guinea prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave South Africa a 26% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Guinea 41%. Guinea are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for South Africa vs Guinea?
0-1 (17.4%), followed by 0-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.6%) and 0-2 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in South Africa vs Guinea?
The probability that both South Africa and Guinea score is 34%. South Africa have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guinea 47%.
How many goals should we expect in South Africa vs Guinea?
The model expects 1.78 goals (0.75 for South Africa, 1.03 for Guinea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 53%, over 2.5 goals 26%, over 3.5 goals 11%.
When and where is South Africa vs Guinea played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Orlando Stadium, Johannesburg.
What form are South Africa and Guinea in?
South Africa: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded). Guinea: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between South Africa and Guinea?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for South Africa, 0 for Guinea and 1 draw. The most recent ended South Africa 2-1 Guinea (Aug 11, 2025).
What was the South Africa vs Guinea result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: South Africa 2-1 Guinea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Guinea (41%), while victory for South Africa was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.9%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (26%): missed.
How is the South Africa vs Guinea prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.75 for South Africa, 1.03 for Guinea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All South Africa predictions
- All Guinea predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology