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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

AC Milan vs Benfica: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

AC MilanAC Milan0 – 2BenficaBenfica

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: AC Milan 0-2 Benfica. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AC Milan (46%), while victory for Benfica was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.

Match analysis

AC Milan and Benfica met on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano. Before kick-off, our model gave AC Milan a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Benfica 28%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.0%).

AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 6. Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 15 and conceding 3. Benfica therefore arrive in far better shape than AC Milan. On average AC Milan score 2.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Benfica score 3.00 and concede 0.60. Over their recent games, AC Milan have averaged 1.43 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.03 for Benfica.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AC Milan, 1 for Benfica and 0 draws. Benfica: A. Bah. In double chance terms, "AC Milan or draw" stands at 72%, "Benfica or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

46%
AC Milan (Win)
26%
Draw
28%
Benfica (Win)

Double chance

72%
AC Milan or draw
55%
Benfica or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as AC Milan – Benfica. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
AC Milan 1-1 Benfica12.5%
AC Milan 1-0 Benfica11.6%
AC Milan 2-1 Benfica9.0%
AC Milan 0-1 Benfica8.7%
AC Milan 2-0 Benfica8.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.44 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.08 for Benfica, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 50%. AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Benfica in 24%.

Probability
AC Milan expected goals1.44
Benfica expected goals1.08
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
AC Milan clean sheet34%
Benfica clean sheet24%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

AC Milan

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Lazio · Serie A2-2D
Sep 6, 2026Juventus · Serie A1-1D
Aug 28, 2026Venezia · Serie A2-0W
Aug 23, 2026Torino · Serie A2-1W
Aug 15, 2026Manchester United · Club Friendlies4-2W

Benfica

DateOpponentScore
Sep 13, 2026GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga3-1W
Sep 9, 2026Moreirense · Primeira Liga4-0W
Sep 5, 2026Maritimo · Primeira Liga3-0W
Aug 31, 2026Estoril · Primeira Liga2-1W
Aug 27, 2026Aarhus · UEFA Europa League3-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
AC Milan2300
Benfica400

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AC Milan, 1 for Benfica and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

AC Milan

No absences reported.

Benfica

  • A. Bah (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the AC Milan vs Benfica prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave AC Milan a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Benfica 28%. AC Milan are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for AC Milan vs Benfica?

1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.6%), 2-1 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (8.3%).

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Benfica?

The probability that both AC Milan and Benfica score is 50%. AC Milan have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Benfica 24%.

How many goals should we expect in AC Milan vs Benfica?

The model expects 2.52 goals (1.44 for AC Milan, 1.08 for Benfica). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.

When and where is AC Milan vs Benfica played?

Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano.

What form are AC Milan and Benfica in?

AC Milan: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded). Benfica: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Benfica?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AC Milan, 1 for Benfica and 0 draws.

What was the AC Milan vs Benfica result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: AC Milan 0-2 Benfica. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AC Milan (46%), while victory for Benfica was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.

How is the AC Milan vs Benfica prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for AC Milan, 1.08 for Benfica) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained