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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen2 – 0CeljeCelje

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Celje. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Bayer Leverkusen was the model's favourite outcome (91%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): missed.

Match analysis

Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje was played on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen. Before kick-off, our model gave Bayer Leverkusen a 91% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Celje 3%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (9.6%), ahead of 4-0 (9.6%) and 5-0 (7.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 6. Celje have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Bayer Leverkusen. On average Bayer Leverkusen score 2.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Celje score 1.20 and concede 1.20.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bayer Leverkusen and Celje: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Bayer Leverkusen out or doubtful: M. Culbreath, K. Eichhorn, N. Tella, V. Boniface and J. Hofmann. Celje: A. Kotnik and J. Pisek. In double chance terms, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" stands at 97%, "Celje or draw" at 9% and "no draw" at 94%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

91%
Bayer Leverkusen (Win)
6%
Draw
3%
Celje (Win)

Double chance

97%
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
9%
Celje or draw
94%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bayer Leverkusen – Celje. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Celje9.6%
Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Celje9.6%
Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 Celje7.7%
Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Celje7.2%
Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Celje6.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.71 goals in total (4.00 for Bayer Leverkusen, 0.71 for Celje): over 2.5 goals has a 85% probability and both teams to score 50%. Everything points to an open game. Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Celje in 2%.

Probability
Bayer Leverkusen expected goals4.00
Celje expected goals0.71
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals95%
Over 2.5 goals85%
Over 3.5 goals69%
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet49%
Celje clean sheet2%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Bayer Leverkusen

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026FC Augsburg · Bundesliga2-2D
Sep 5, 2026Union Berlin · Bundesliga4-0W
Aug 29, 2026SV Elversberg · Bundesliga2-3L
Aug 22, 2026SV Wehen · DFB-Pokal4-0W
Aug 15, 2026Newcastle · Club Friendlies2-1W

Celje

DateOpponentScore
Aug 26, 2026Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League1-2L
Aug 19, 2026Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Aug 11, 2026Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Champions League2-0W
Aug 4, 2026Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Champions League1-2L
Jul 28, 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë · UEFA Champions League1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bayer Leverkusen1800
Celje700

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bayer Leverkusen and Celje: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Bayer Leverkusen

  • M. Culbreath (out)
  • K. Eichhorn (out)
  • N. Tella (out)
  • V. Boniface (out)
  • J. Hofmann (out)

Celje

  • A. Kotnik (out)
  • J. Pisek (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Bayer Leverkusen a 91% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Celje 3%. Bayer Leverkusen are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?

3-0 (9.6%), followed by 4-0 (9.6%), 5-0 (7.7%), 2-0 (7.2%) and 3-1 (6.8%).

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?

The probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Celje score is 50%. Bayer Leverkusen have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Celje 2%.

How many goals should we expect in Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?

The model expects 4.71 goals (4.00 for Bayer Leverkusen, 0.71 for Celje). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 69%.

When and where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje played?

Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen.

What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Celje in?

Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 6 conceded). Celje: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Celje. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Bayer Leverkusen was the model's favourite outcome (91%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): missed.

How is the Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Bayer Leverkusen, 0.71 for Celje) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained