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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha: 1-4 result and AI prediction review

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia1 – 4Sparta PrahaSparta Praha

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Praha. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sparta Praha was the model's favourite outcome (60%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.

Match analysis

Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha was played on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. Before kick-off, our model gave Ararat-Armenia a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sparta Praha 60%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (11.2%), ahead of 0-2 (10.7%) and 1-1 (10.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Ararat-Armenia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Sparta Praha have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 11. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Ararat-Armenia score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sparta Praha score 1.40 and concede 2.20.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ararat-Armenia, 2 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ararat-Armenia 1-2 Sparta Praha (Aug 14, 2025). Sparta Praha: M. Andersen, E. Cobbaut, K. Hoever, S. Mannsverk and J. Martinec. In double chance terms, "Ararat-Armenia or draw" stands at 40%, "Sparta Praha or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 78%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

18%
Ararat-Armenia (Win)
22%
Draw
60%
Sparta Praha (Win)

Double chance

40%
Ararat-Armenia or draw
82%
Sparta Praha or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Ararat-Armenia – Sparta Praha. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Ararat-Armenia 0-1 Sparta Praha11.2%
Ararat-Armenia 0-2 Sparta Praha10.7%
Ararat-Armenia 1-1 Sparta Praha10.4%
Ararat-Armenia 1-2 Sparta Praha9.9%
Ararat-Armenia 0-3 Sparta Praha6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.83 goals in total (0.93 for Ararat-Armenia, 1.90 for Sparta Praha): over 2.5 goals has a 54% probability and both teams to score 52%. Ararat-Armenia keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Sparta Praha in 40%.

Probability
Ararat-Armenia expected goals0.93
Sparta Praha expected goals1.90
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet15%
Sparta Praha clean sheet40%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Ararat-Armenia

DateOpponentScore
Aug 27, 2026Universitatea Craiova · UEFA Europa League1-0W
Aug 20, 2026Universitatea Craiova · UEFA Europa League1-1D
Aug 11, 2026Celje · UEFA Champions League0-2L
Aug 4, 2026Celje · UEFA Champions League2-1W
Jul 28, 2026Shamrock Rovers · UEFA Champions League1-2L

Sparta Praha

DateOpponentScore
Aug 11, 2026Lyon · UEFA Champions League0-3L
Aug 4, 2026Lyon · UEFA Champions League2-1W
Jul 4, 2026Opava · Club Friendlies4-1W
Mar 19, 2026AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League0-4L
Mar 12, 2026AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Ararat-Armenia200
Sparta Praha3100

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 14, 2025Ararat-Armenia 1-2 Sparta PrahaUEFA Conference League
Aug 7, 2025Sparta Praha 4-1 Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Ararat-Armenia

No absences reported.

Sparta Praha

  • M. Andersen (out)
  • E. Cobbaut (out)
  • K. Hoever (out)
  • S. Mannsverk (out)
  • J. Martinec (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Ararat-Armenia a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sparta Praha 60%. Sparta Praha are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha?

0-1 (11.2%), followed by 0-2 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-3 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha?

The probability that both Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha score is 52%. Ararat-Armenia have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sparta Praha 40%.

How many goals should we expect in Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha?

The model expects 2.83 goals (0.93 for Ararat-Armenia, 1.90 for Sparta Praha). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 32%.

When and where is Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha played?

Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan.

What form are Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha in?

Ararat-Armenia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Sparta Praha: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ararat-Armenia, 2 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ararat-Armenia 1-2 Sparta Praha (Aug 14, 2025).

What was the Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Praha. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sparta Praha was the model's favourite outcome (60%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.

How is the Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.93 for Ararat-Armenia, 1.90 for Sparta Praha) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained