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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

SunderlandSunderland1 – 0AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AZ Alkmaar (50%), while victory for Sunderland was rated at only 30%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): missed.

Match analysis

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar was played on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Before kick-off, our model gave Sunderland a 30% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AZ Alkmaar 50%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (8.4%), ahead of 1-1 (7.6%) and 2-2 (7.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Sunderland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 5. AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 15 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with AZ Alkmaar. On average Sunderland score 0.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; AZ Alkmaar score 3.00 and concede 1.20. Over their recent games, Sunderland have averaged 1.50 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.46 for AZ Alkmaar.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Sunderland out or doubtful: H. Diarra, R. Mundle, J. Angulo, A. Browne and M. Ellborg. AZ Alkmaar: D. Kasius, S. Resink, K. Smit and J. Zoet. In double chance terms, "Sunderland or draw" stands at 50%, "AZ Alkmaar or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 80%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

30%
Sunderland (Win)
20%
Draw
50%
AZ Alkmaar (Win)

Double chance

50%
Sunderland or draw
70%
AZ Alkmaar or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Sunderland 1-2 AZ Alkmaar8.4%
Sunderland 1-1 AZ Alkmaar7.6%
Sunderland 2-2 AZ Alkmaar7.0%
Sunderland 2-1 AZ Alkmaar6.4%
Sunderland 1-3 AZ Alkmaar6.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.88 goals in total (1.67 for Sunderland, 2.21 for AZ Alkmaar): over 2.5 goals has a 74% probability and both teams to score 72%. Everything points to an open game. Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, AZ Alkmaar in 19%.

Probability
Sunderland expected goals1.67
AZ Alkmaar expected goals2.21
Both teams to score72%
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Over 3.5 goals54%
Sunderland clean sheet11%
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Sunderland

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Arsenal · Premier League0-2L
Sep 8, 2026Hull City · EFL Cup1-0W
Sep 5, 2026Brentford · Premier League1-1D
Aug 30, 2026Fulham · Premier League1-0W
Aug 22, 2026Ipswich · Premier League1-2L

AZ Alkmaar

DateOpponentScore
Sep 11, 2026Willem II · Eredivisie1-1D
Sep 6, 2026Heerenveen · Eredivisie3-2W
Aug 29, 2026GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie5-2W
Aug 22, 2026Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2-0W
Aug 15, 2026Utrecht · Eredivisie4-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Sunderland3300
AZ Alkmaar300

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Sunderland

  • H. Diarra (out)
  • R. Mundle (out)
  • J. Angulo (out)
  • A. Browne (out)
  • M. Ellborg (out)

AZ Alkmaar

  • D. Kasius (out)
  • S. Resink (out)
  • K. Smit (out)
  • J. Zoet (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Sunderland a 30% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AZ Alkmaar 50%. AZ Alkmaar are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?

1-2 (8.4%), followed by 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.0%), 2-1 (6.4%) and 1-3 (6.2%).

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?

The probability that both Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar score is 72%. Sunderland have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AZ Alkmaar 19%.

How many goals should we expect in Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model expects 3.88 goals (1.67 for Sunderland, 2.21 for AZ Alkmaar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 74%, over 3.5 goals 54%.

When and where is Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar played?

Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland.

What form are Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar in?

Sunderland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded). AZ Alkmaar: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AZ Alkmaar (50%), while victory for Sunderland was rated at only 30%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): missed.

How is the Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for Sunderland, 2.21 for AZ Alkmaar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained