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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, September 17, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Beşiktaş vs Marseille: 4-1 result and AI prediction review

BeşiktaşBeşiktaş4 – 1MarseilleMarseille

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Beşiktaş 4-1 Marseille. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Beşiktaş was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (70%): correct.

Match analysis

Beşiktaş vs Marseille was played on Thursday, September 17, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Tüpraş Stadium, Istanbul. Before kick-off, our model gave Beşiktaş a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 22%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.2%), ahead of 1-1 (8.5%) and 3-1 (6.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Beşiktaş have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Marseille have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Beşiktaş. On average Beşiktaş score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Marseille score 1.40 and concede 1.60. Over their recent games, Beşiktaş have averaged 1.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.63 for Marseille.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Beşiktaş and Marseille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Beşiktaş out or doubtful: C. Keles, M. Rashica and L. Trossard. Marseille: G. Kondogbia, A. Koum Mbondo and T. Nnadi. In double chance terms, "Beşiktaş or draw" stands at 78%, "Marseille or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 77%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
Beşiktaş (Win)
23%
Draw
22%
Marseille (Win)

Double chance

78%
Beşiktaş or draw
45%
Marseille or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Beşiktaş – Marseille. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Beşiktaş 2-1 Marseille9.2%
Beşiktaş 1-1 Marseille8.5%
Beşiktaş 3-1 Marseille6.6%
Beşiktaş 2-2 Marseille6.6%
Beşiktaş 2-0 Marseille6.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.60 goals in total (2.16 for Beşiktaş, 1.44 for Marseille): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 68%. Everything points to an open game. Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Marseille in 12%.

Probability
Beşiktaş expected goals2.16
Marseille expected goals1.44
Both teams to score68%
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Beşiktaş clean sheet24%
Marseille clean sheet12%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Beşiktaş

DateOpponentScore
Sep 11, 2026Erzurumspor FK · Süper Lig3-0W
Sep 5, 2026Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig2-1W
Aug 31, 2026Çorum FK · Süper Lig6-2W
Aug 27, 2026Kauno Žalgiris · UEFA Europa League0-1L
Aug 23, 2026Alanyaspor · Süper Lig0-1L

Marseille

DateOpponentScore
Sep 11, 2026Rennes · Ligue 10-1L
Sep 6, 2026Paris FC · Ligue 12-3L
Aug 30, 2026Monaco · Ligue 10-2L
Aug 21, 2026Strasbourg · Ligue 14-0W
Aug 14, 2026Atletico Madrid · Club Friendlies1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Beşiktaş1200
Marseille2200

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Beşiktaş and Marseille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Beşiktaş

  • C. Keles (out)
  • M. Rashica (out)
  • L. Trossard (out)

Marseille

  • G. Kondogbia (out)
  • A. Koum Mbondo (out)
  • T. Nnadi (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Beşiktaş vs Marseille prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Beşiktaş a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 22%. Beşiktaş are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

2-1 (9.2%), followed by 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (6.6%), 2-2 (6.6%) and 2-0 (6.4%).

Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

The probability that both Beşiktaş and Marseille score is 68%. Beşiktaş have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Marseille 12%.

How many goals should we expect in Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

The model expects 3.60 goals (2.16 for Beşiktaş, 1.44 for Marseille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.

When and where is Beşiktaş vs Marseille played?

Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Tüpraş Stadium, Istanbul.

What form are Beşiktaş and Marseille in?

Beşiktaş: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). Marseille: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).

What was the Beşiktaş vs Marseille result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Beşiktaş 4-1 Marseille. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Beşiktaş was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (70%): correct.

How is the Beşiktaş vs Marseille prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.16 for Beşiktaş, 1.44 for Marseille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained