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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, September 17, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan: 4-0 result and AI prediction review

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace4 – 0Lech PoznanLech Poznan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Crystal Palace was the model's favourite outcome (71%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.

Match analysis

Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan was played on Thursday, September 17, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Selhurst Park, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Crystal Palace a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Lech Poznan 11%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Crystal Palace have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Lech Poznan have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Lech Poznan. On average Crystal Palace score 1.80 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Lech Poznan score 3.00 and concede 1.00.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Crystal Palace out or doubtful: J. Mateta, E. Nketiah, C. Riad, I. Sarr and C. Doucoure. Lech Poznan: A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, A. Kozubal and D. Hakans. In double chance terms, "Crystal Palace or draw" stands at 89%, "Lech Poznan or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 82%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

71%
Crystal Palace (Win)
18%
Draw
11%
Lech Poznan (Win)

Double chance

89%
Crystal Palace or draw
29%
Lech Poznan or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Crystal Palace 2-0 Lech Poznan12.1%
Crystal Palace 1-0 Lech Poznan10.9%
Crystal Palace 2-1 Lech Poznan9.6%
Crystal Palace 3-0 Lech Poznan9.0%
Crystal Palace 1-1 Lech Poznan8.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.01 goals in total (2.22 for Crystal Palace, 0.79 for Lech Poznan): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 49%. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Lech Poznan in 11%.

Probability
Crystal Palace expected goals2.22
Lech Poznan expected goals0.79
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Crystal Palace clean sheet45%
Lech Poznan clean sheet11%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Crystal Palace

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Ipswich · Premier League2-3L
Sep 8, 2026Middlesbrough · EFL Cup3-0W
Sep 5, 2026Fulham · Premier League3-2W
Aug 28, 2026Manchester City · Premier League1-4L
Aug 22, 2026Everton · Premier League0-2L

Lech Poznan

DateOpponentScore
Aug 27, 2026FC Thun · UEFA Europa League2-2D
Aug 20, 2026FC Thun · UEFA Europa League7-0W
Aug 14, 2026KI Klaksvik · UEFA Europa League5-0W
Aug 6, 2026KI Klaksvik · UEFA Europa League1-0W
Jul 29, 2026Aarhus · UEFA Champions League0-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Crystal Palace1500
Lech Poznan1900

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Crystal Palace

  • J. Mateta (out)
  • E. Nketiah (out)
  • C. Riad (out)
  • I. Sarr (out)
  • C. Doucoure (out)

Lech Poznan

  • A. Douglas (out)
  • A. Gholizadeh (out)
  • A. Kozubal (out)
  • D. Hakans (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Crystal Palace a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Lech Poznan 11%. Crystal Palace are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?

2-0 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.6%), 3-0 (9.0%) and 1-1 (8.6%).

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?

The probability that both Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan score is 49%. Crystal Palace have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lech Poznan 11%.

How many goals should we expect in Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?

The model expects 3.01 goals (2.22 for Crystal Palace, 0.79 for Lech Poznan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.

When and where is Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan played?

Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Selhurst Park, London.

What form are Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan in?

Crystal Palace: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded). Lech Poznan: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Crystal Palace was the model's favourite outcome (71%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.

How is the Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.22 for Crystal Palace, 0.79 for Lech Poznan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained