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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction: correct score and AI tips

BournemouthBournemouth–AC MilanAC Milan

Match analysis

UEFA Europa League: Bournemouth vs AC Milan kicks off on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. With a 71% win probability, Bournemouth go in as strong favourites against AC Milan (11%), with the draw rated at 18%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (13.7%), ahead of 1-0 (12.8%) and 3-0 (9.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Bournemouth score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; AC Milan score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Bournemouth sit 10th with 3 points from 1 games, AC Milan 30th with 0 points from 1. 20 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bournemouth have averaged 1.08 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.34 for AC Milan.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bournemouth and AC Milan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Bournemouth out or doubtful: J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi, A. Scott, A. Adli (doubtful), D. Brooks (doubtful), J. Kluivert (doubtful) and V. Milosavljevic (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Bournemouth or draw" stands at 89%, "AC Milan or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Our model backs Bournemouth to edge AC Milan (71% probability). On recent form, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 44%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

71%
Bournemouth (Win)
18%
Draw
11%
AC Milan (Win)

Double chance

89%
Bournemouth or draw
29%
AC Milan or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bournemouth – AC Milan. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bournemouth 2-0 AC Milan13.7%
Bournemouth 1-0 AC Milan12.8%
Bournemouth 3-0 AC Milan9.7%
Bournemouth 2-1 AC Milan9.3%
Bournemouth 1-1 AC Milan8.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.81 goals in total (2.13 for Bournemouth, 0.68 for AC Milan): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 44%. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 51% of scenarios, AC Milan in 12%.

Probability
Bournemouth expected goals2.13
AC Milan expected goals0.68
Both teams to score44%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Bournemouth clean sheet51%
AC Milan clean sheet12%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Bournemouth

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Liverpool · Premier League0-1L
Sep 17, 2026Real Sociedad · UEFA Europa League2-1W
Sep 12, 2026Brentford · Premier League2-2D
Sep 8, 2026Lincoln · EFL Cup4-0W
Sep 5, 2026Newcastle · Premier League2-2D

AC Milan

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Lecce · Serie A3-0W
Sep 16, 2026Benfica · UEFA Europa League0-2L
Sep 12, 2026Lazio · Serie A2-2D
Sep 6, 2026Juventus · Serie A1-1D
Aug 28, 2026Venezia · Serie A2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bournemouth1031
AC Milan3001

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bournemouth and AC Milan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Bournemouth

  • J. Araujo (out)
  • E. J. Kroupi (out)
  • A. Scott (out)
  • A. Adli (doubtful)
  • D. Brooks (doubtful)
  • J. Kluivert (doubtful)
  • V. Milosavljevic (doubtful)

AC Milan

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Bournemouth

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Hill5/5
  • A. Scott4/5
  • A. Smith4/5
  • A. Truffert4/5
  • Evanilson4/5
  • J. Kluivert4/5
  • M. Tavernier4/5
  • Rayan4/5
  • T. Adams4/5
  • A. Silva3/5
  • António Silva2/5

AC Milan

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • G. Ramos4/5
  • K. De Winter4/5
  • M. Maignan4/5
  • S. Pavlovic4/5
  • A. Cisse3/5
  • L. Modric3/5
  • M. Gila3/5
  • S. Chukwueze3/5
  • Y. Musah3/5
  • A. Rabiot2/5
  • D. Bartesaghi2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction?

Our AI gives Bournemouth a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and AC Milan 11%. Bournemouth are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

2-0 (13.7%), followed by 1-0 (12.8%), 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-1 (8.7%).

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

The probability that both Bournemouth and AC Milan score is 44%. Bournemouth have a 51% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AC Milan 12%.

How many goals should we expect in Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

The model expects 2.81 goals (2.13 for Bournemouth, 0.68 for AC Milan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.

When and where is Bournemouth vs AC Milan played?

Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.

What form are Bournemouth and AC Milan in?

Bournemouth: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). AC Milan: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).

How is the Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.13 for Bournemouth, 0.68 for AC Milan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained