UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Europa League: Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad kicks off on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). The edge goes to Real Sociedad (48%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Lillestrom win (28%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.1%), ahead of 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-1 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lillestrom have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Lillestrom. On average Lillestrom score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Real Sociedad score 1.40 and concede 2.00. In the table, Lillestrom sit 24th with 0 points from 1 games, Real Sociedad 22nd with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lillestrom and Real Sociedad: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Lillestrom or draw" stands at 52%, "Real Sociedad or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Real Sociedad are favourites for this Lillestrom v Real Sociedad, with a 48% win probability from our model. On recent form, Lillestrom have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lillestrom – Real Sociedad. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lillestrom 1-1 Real Sociedad | 11.1% |
| Lillestrom 1-2 Real Sociedad | 9.5% |
| Lillestrom 0-1 Real Sociedad | 9.0% |
| Lillestrom 0-2 Real Sociedad | 7.7% |
| Lillestrom 2-1 Real Sociedad | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.95 goals in total (1.24 for Lillestrom, 1.71 for Real Sociedad): over 2.5 goals has a 57% probability and both teams to score 58%. Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Real Sociedad in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lillestrom expected goals | 1.24 |
| Real Sociedad expected goals | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Lillestrom clean sheet | 18% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lillestrom
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bærum · NM Cupen | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Viking · Eliteserien | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Torreense · UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Valerenga · Eliteserien | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brann · Eliteserien | 2-1 | W |
Real Sociedad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Athletic Club · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth · UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 24 | 0 | 1 |
| Real Sociedad | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lillestrom and Real Sociedad: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Lillestrom
No absences reported.
Real Sociedad
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Lillestrom
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Nyheim4/4
- L. Ranger4/4
- P. Dahlberg4/4
- D. Bassi3/4
- E. Kitolano3/4
- F. Elkaer3/4
- F. Gulbrandsen3/4
- Felix Va3/4
- R. Gabrielsen3/4
- S. Foss3/4
- Y. Ibrahimaj3/4
Real Sociedad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Guedes4/5
- A. Remiro3/5
- C. Soler3/5
- J. Aramburu3/5
- L. Beitia3/5
- L. Sucic3/5
- M. Oyarzabal3/5
- M. Sarr3/5
- S. Gomez3/5
- Y. Herrera3/5
- J. Gorrotxategi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction?
Our AI gives Lillestrom a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 48%. Real Sociedad are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
1-1 (11.1%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (7.7%) and 2-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
The probability that both Lillestrom and Real Sociedad score is 58%. Lillestrom have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Sociedad 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
The model expects 2.95 goals (1.24 for Lillestrom, 1.71 for Real Sociedad). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 57%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League.
What form are Lillestrom and Real Sociedad in?
Lillestrom: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Real Sociedad: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.24 for Lillestrom, 1.71 for Real Sociedad) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lillestrom predictions
- All Real Sociedad predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology