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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg: 3-3 result and AI prediction review

PafosPafos3 – 3Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Pafos 3-3 Red Bull Salzburg. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Red Bull Salzburg (41%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.

Match analysis

Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg was played on Thursday, August 13, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Limassol. Before kick-off, our model gave Pafos a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Red Bull Salzburg 41%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.8%), ahead of 0-1 (11.2%) and 1-0 (9.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Pafos have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Red Bull Salzburg have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Red Bull Salzburg. On average Pafos score 0.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Red Bull Salzburg score 2.60 and concede 0.60.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Pafos, 1 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0 draws. The most recent ended Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Pafos (Aug 6, 2026). In double chance terms, "Pafos or draw" stands at 59%, "Red Bull Salzburg or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 73%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

32%
Pafos (Win)
27%
Draw
41%
Red Bull Salzburg (Win)

Double chance

59%
Pafos or draw
68%
Red Bull Salzburg or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Pafos – Red Bull Salzburg. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Pafos 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg12.8%
Pafos 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg11.2%
Pafos 1-0 Red Bull Salzburg9.6%
Pafos 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg8.5%
Pafos 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg8.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.47 goals in total (1.14 for Pafos, 1.33 for Red Bull Salzburg): over 2.5 goals has a 45% probability and both teams to score 50%. Pafos keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Red Bull Salzburg in 32%.

Probability
Pafos expected goals1.14
Red Bull Salzburg expected goals1.33
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Pafos clean sheet26%
Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet32%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Pafos

DateOpponentScore
Aug 6, 2026Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League0-1L
Jul 30, 2026HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa League2-0W
Jul 23, 2026HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa League0-2L
Jul 8, 2026FK Jablonec · Club Friendlies0-0D
Jul 3, 2026Cracovia Krakow · Club Friendlies2-1W

Red Bull Salzburg

DateOpponentScore
Aug 6, 2026Pafos · UEFA Europa League1-0W
Jul 15, 2026Başakşehir · Club Friendlies1-2L
Jul 9, 2026Metalist 1925 Kharkiv · Club Friendlies4-0W
Jul 4, 2026Gornik Zabrze · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jun 26, 2026Seekirchen · Club Friendlies5-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 6, 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 PafosUEFA Europa League

Out and doubtful

Pafos

No absences reported.

Red Bull Salzburg

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Pafos a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Red Bull Salzburg 41%. Red Bull Salzburg are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg?

1-1 (12.8%), followed by 0-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.6%), 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-0 (8.5%).

Will both teams score in Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg?

The probability that both Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg score is 50%. Pafos have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Red Bull Salzburg 32%.

How many goals should we expect in Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg?

The model expects 2.47 goals (1.14 for Pafos, 1.33 for Red Bull Salzburg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.

When and where is Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg played?

Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Limassol.

What form are Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg in?

Pafos: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). Red Bull Salzburg: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Pafos, 1 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0 draws. The most recent ended Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Pafos (Aug 6, 2026).

What was the Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Pafos 3-3 Red Bull Salzburg. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Red Bull Salzburg (41%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.

How is the Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.14 for Pafos, 1.33 for Red Bull Salzburg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained