UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Saburtalo vs Larne: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Saburtalo 2-1 Larne. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Saburtalo was the model's favourite outcome (51%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Saburtalo vs Larne was played on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi. Before kick-off, our model gave Saburtalo a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Larne 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Saburtalo have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Larne have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Saburtalo score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Larne score 0.60 and concede 2.00.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Saburtalo, 0 for Larne and 1 draw. The most recent ended Larne 0-0 Saburtalo (Aug 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Saburtalo or draw" stands at 76%, "Larne or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Saburtalo – Larne. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Saburtalo 1-1 Larne | 11.8% |
| Saburtalo 1-0 Larne | 11.4% |
| Saburtalo 2-1 Larne | 9.5% |
| Saburtalo 2-0 Larne | 9.2% |
| Saburtalo 0-1 Larne | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.61 for Saburtalo, 1.04 for Larne): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Saburtalo keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Larne in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Saburtalo expected goals | 1.61 |
| Larne expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 35% |
| Larne clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Saburtalo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Larne · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Flora Tallinn · UEFA Champions League | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Flora Tallinn · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
Larne
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Saburtalo · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda · UEFA Champions League | 0-5 | L |
| Jul 21, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda · UEFA Champions League | 0-4 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Tre Fiori · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Tre Fiori · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Larne 0-0 Saburtalo | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Saburtalo
No absences reported.
Larne
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Lincoln Red Imps FCAug 13, 2026
- Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Ferencvarosi TCAug 13, 2026
- Beşiktaş 1-0 Hradec KrálovéAug 13, 2026
- Pafos 3-3 Red Bull SalzburgAug 13, 2026
- Universitatea Craiova 2-1 KuPSAug 13, 2026
- Vikingur Reykjavik 3-2 FC ThunAug 13, 2026
- CSKA Sofia 1-3 Maccabi Tel AvivAug 13, 2026
- Anderlecht 3-2 PAOKAug 13, 2026
- Rangers 1-1 JagielloniaAug 13, 2026
- Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 BenficaAug 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Saburtalo vs Larne prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Saburtalo a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Larne 24%. Saburtalo are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Saburtalo vs Larne?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Saburtalo vs Larne?
The probability that both Saburtalo and Larne score is 52%. Saburtalo have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Larne 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Saburtalo vs Larne?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Saburtalo, 1.04 for Larne). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Saburtalo vs Larne played?
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi.
What form are Saburtalo and Larne in?
Saburtalo: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Larne: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Saburtalo and Larne?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Saburtalo, 0 for Larne and 1 draw. The most recent ended Larne 0-0 Saburtalo (Aug 4, 2026).
What was the Saburtalo vs Larne result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Saburtalo 2-1 Larne. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Saburtalo was the model's favourite outcome (51%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Saburtalo vs Larne prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Saburtalo, 1.04 for Larne) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Saburtalo predictions
- All Larne predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology