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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Thursday, June 11, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Mexico vs South Africa: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

MexicoMexico2 – 0South AfricaSouth Africa

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Mexico 2-0 South Africa. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mexico was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

Match analysis

Mexico vs South Africa was played on Thursday, June 11, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. Before kick-off, our model gave Mexico a 55% chance of winning, the draw 28% and South Africa 17%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.6%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.5%).

Mexico are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. South Africa have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Mexico. On average Mexico score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; South Africa score 0.80 and concede 1.20.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Mexico, 0 for South Africa and 1 draw. In double chance terms, "Mexico or draw" stands at 83%, "South Africa or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Mexico arrives with strong recent form (3 wins in last 5 matches), while South Africa shows inconsistency with 2 losses and 3 draws in their last five outings. Their sole head-to-head meeting ended in a draw, but Mexico's superior form suggests they enter as clear favorites.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
Mexico (Win)
28%
Draw
17%
South Africa (Win)

Double chance

83%
Mexico or draw
45%
South Africa or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Mexico – South Africa. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Mexico 2-0 South Africa12.6%
Mexico 1-0 South Africa11.5%
Mexico 2-1 South Africa9.5%
Mexico 3-0 South Africa9.1%
Mexico 1-1 South Africa8.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.94 goals in total (2.18 for Mexico, 0.76 for South Africa): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 47%. Mexico keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, South Africa in 11%.

Probability
Mexico expected goals2.18
South Africa expected goals0.76
Both teams to score47%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Mexico clean sheet47%
South Africa clean sheet11%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Mexico

DateOpponentScore
Jun 5, 2026Serbia · International Friendlies5-1W
May 31, 2026Australia · International Friendlies1-0W
May 23, 2026Ghana · International Friendlies2-0W
Apr 1, 2026Belgium · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 29, 2026Portugal · International Friendlies0-0D

South Africa

DateOpponentScore
Jun 6, 2026Jamaica · International Friendlies1-1D
May 29, 2026Nicaragua · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 31, 2026Panama · International Friendlies1-2L
Mar 27, 2026Panama · International Friendlies1-1D
Jan 4, 2026Cameroon · Africa Cup of Nations1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Mexico100
South Africa200

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Mexico, 0 for South Africa and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

Mexico

No absences reported.

South Africa

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Mexico vs South Africa prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Mexico a 55% chance of winning, the draw 28% and South Africa 17%. Mexico are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Mexico vs South Africa?

2-0 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.1%) and 1-1 (8.8%).

Will both teams score in Mexico vs South Africa?

The probability that both Mexico and South Africa score is 47%. Mexico have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, South Africa 11%.

How many goals should we expect in Mexico vs South Africa?

The model expects 2.94 goals (2.18 for Mexico, 0.76 for South Africa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.

When and where is Mexico vs South Africa played?

Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City.

What form are Mexico and South Africa in?

Mexico: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). South Africa: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Mexico and South Africa?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Mexico, 0 for South Africa and 1 draw.

What was the Mexico vs South Africa result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Mexico 2-0 South Africa. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mexico was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

How is the Mexico vs South Africa prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.18 for Mexico, 0.76 for South Africa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained