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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, June 14, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)

Netherlands vs Japan: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

NetherlandsNetherlands2 – 2JapanJapan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Netherlands 2-2 Japan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Netherlands (55%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Netherlands vs Japan was played on Sunday, June 14, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington. Before kick-off, our model gave Netherlands a 55% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Japan 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

Over their last 4 matches, Netherlands have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Japan are unbeaten in their last 3 matches (3 wins, 0 draws), scoring 3 and conceding 0. Recent momentum is clearly with Japan. On average Netherlands score 1.25 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Japan score 1.00 and concede 0.00.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Japan and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "Netherlands or draw" stands at 75%, "Japan or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 80%.

In short : Netherlands enters as favorites with a 1-0 head-to-head advantage and recent mixed form (3W-1L-1D), while Japan arrives on an impressive five-game winning streak. The Dutch's superior historical record against Japan combined with their World Cup pedigree gives them the edge, though Japan's current momentum presents a genuine threat.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
Netherlands (Win)
20%
Draw
25%
Japan (Win)

Double chance

75%
Netherlands or draw
45%
Japan or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Netherlands – Japan. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Netherlands 1-1 Japan12.1%
Netherlands 1-0 Japan11.3%
Netherlands 2-1 Japan9.4%
Netherlands 2-0 Japan8.7%
Netherlands 0-1 Japan7.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.62 goals in total (1.55 for Netherlands, 1.07 for Japan): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Netherlands keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Japan in 21%.

Probability
Netherlands expected goals1.55
Japan expected goals1.07
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Netherlands clean sheet34%
Japan clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Netherlands

DateOpponentScore
Jun 8, 2026Uzbekistan · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 3, 2026Algeria · International Friendlies0-1L
Mar 31, 2026Ecuador · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 27, 2026Norway · International Friendlies2-1W

Japan

DateOpponentScore
May 31, 2026Iceland · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 31, 2026England · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 28, 2026Scotland · International Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Netherlands100
Japan200

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Japan and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Netherlands

No absences reported.

Japan

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Netherlands vs Japan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Netherlands a 55% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Japan 25%. Netherlands are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Netherlands vs Japan?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.7%) and 0-1 (7.8%).

Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Japan?

The probability that both Netherlands and Japan score is 52%. Netherlands have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Japan 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Netherlands vs Japan?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.55 for Netherlands, 1.07 for Japan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Netherlands vs Japan played?

Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington.

What form are Netherlands and Japan in?

Netherlands: 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded). Japan: 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 3 matches (3 scored, 0 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Netherlands and Japan?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Japan and 0 draws.

What was the Netherlands vs Japan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Netherlands 2-2 Japan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Netherlands (55%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Netherlands vs Japan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.55 for Netherlands, 1.07 for Japan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained