FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Monday, June 15, 2026, 03:00 (UK time)
Sweden vs Tunisia: 5-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (52%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
Match analysis
Sweden vs Tunisia was played on Monday, June 15, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. Before kick-off, our model gave Sweden a 52% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Tunisia 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.1%) and 1-1 (10.5%).
Sweden have not won any of their last 2 matches (1 draw, 1 defeat), scoring 3 and conceding 5. Tunisia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 7. On average Sweden score 1.50 and concede 2.50 goals per game; Tunisia score 0.40 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sweden and Tunisia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Sweden or draw" stands at 80%, "Tunisia or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Sweden enters as World Cup favorites with a recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches, while Tunisia arrives with a more inconsistent form of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The Nordic side's superior recent performance and higher seeding position suggest they hold the advantage in this group stage encounter.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sweden – Tunisia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sweden 1-0 Tunisia | 11.8% |
| Sweden 2-0 Tunisia | 11.1% |
| Sweden 1-1 Tunisia | 10.5% |
| Sweden 2-1 Tunisia | 9.8% |
| Sweden 3-0 Tunisia | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.76 goals in total (1.87 for Sweden, 0.89 for Tunisia): over 2.5 goals has a 52% probability and both teams to score 50%. Sweden keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Tunisia in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sweden expected goals | 1.87 |
| Tunisia expected goals | 0.89 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 41% |
| Tunisia clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Norway · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
Tunisia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Belgium · International Friendlies | 0-5 | L |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Austria · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Mali · Africa Cup of Nations | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Tunisia | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sweden and Tunisia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Sweden
No absences reported.
Tunisia
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Brazil 1-1 MoroccoJun 13, 2026
- Haiti 0-1 ScotlandJun 14, 2026
- Australia 2-0 TürkiyeJun 14, 2026
- Germany 7-1 CuraçaoJun 14, 2026
- Netherlands 2-2 JapanJun 14, 2026
- Ivory Coast 1-0 EcuadorJun 15, 2026
- Spain 0-0 Cape VerdeJun 15, 2026
- Belgium 1-1 EgyptJun 15, 2026
- Saudi Arabia 1-1 UruguayJun 15, 2026
- Iran 2-2 New ZealandJun 16, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sweden vs Tunisia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sweden a 52% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Tunisia 20%. Sweden are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Sweden vs Tunisia?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Tunisia?
The probability that both Sweden and Tunisia score is 50%. Sweden have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Tunisia 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Sweden vs Tunisia?
The model expects 2.76 goals (1.87 for Sweden, 0.89 for Tunisia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Sweden vs Tunisia played?
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 03:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey.
What form are Sweden and Tunisia in?
Sweden: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded). Tunisia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 7 conceded).
What was the Sweden vs Tunisia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (52%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
How is the Sweden vs Tunisia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.87 for Sweden, 0.89 for Tunisia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sweden predictions
- All Tunisia predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology