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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, June 13, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)

United States vs Paraguay: 4-1 result and AI prediction review

United StatesUnited States4 – 1ParaguayParaguay

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: United States 4-1 Paraguay. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for United States was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

United States vs Paraguay was played on Saturday, June 13, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. Before kick-off, our model gave United States a 62% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Paraguay 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

United States have won just one of their last 4 matches (0 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Over their last 3 matches, Paraguay have 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Paraguay. On average United States score 1.50 and concede 2.75 goals per game; Paraguay score 2.00 and concede 0.67.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for United States, 0 for Paraguay and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "United States or draw" stands at 80%, "Paraguay or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : USA holds a perfect 3-0 head-to-head record against Paraguay and shows stronger recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Paraguay's mixed 3-2 record. The hosts' historical dominance in this fixture suggests a significant advantage despite both teams entering with zero World Cup standings points.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

62%
United States (Win)
18%
Draw
20%
Paraguay (Win)

Double chance

80%
United States or draw
38%
Paraguay or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as United States – Paraguay. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
United States 1-1 Paraguay12.0%
United States 1-0 Paraguay11.3%
United States 2-1 Paraguay9.4%
United States 2-0 Paraguay8.9%
United States 0-1 Paraguay7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.58 for United States, 1.06 for Paraguay): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. United States keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Paraguay in 21%.

Probability
United States expected goals1.58
Paraguay expected goals1.06
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
United States clean sheet35%
Paraguay clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

United States

DateOpponentScore
Jun 6, 2026Germany · International Friendlies1-2L
May 31, 2026Senegal · International Friendlies3-2W
Apr 1, 2026Portugal · International Friendlies0-2L
Mar 28, 2026Belgium · International Friendlies2-5L

Paraguay

DateOpponentScore
Jun 5, 2026Nicaragua · International Friendlies4-0W
Mar 31, 2026Morocco · International Friendlies1-2L
Mar 27, 2026Greece · International Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
United States100
Paraguay200

Head-to-head

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for United States, 0 for Paraguay and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

United States

No absences reported.

Paraguay

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the United States vs Paraguay prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave United States a 62% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Paraguay 20%. United States are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.

What is the most likely correct score for United States vs Paraguay?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in United States vs Paraguay?

The probability that both United States and Paraguay score is 52%. United States have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paraguay 21%.

How many goals should we expect in United States vs Paraguay?

The model expects 2.64 goals (1.58 for United States, 1.06 for Paraguay). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is United States vs Paraguay played?

Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.

What form are United States and Paraguay in?

United States: 1 win, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 4 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). Paraguay: 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between United States and Paraguay?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for United States, 0 for Paraguay and 0 draws.

What was the United States vs Paraguay result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: United States 4-1 Paraguay. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for United States was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the United States vs Paraguay prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for United States, 1.06 for Paraguay) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained