La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Alaves vs Osasuna: 5-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Alaves 5-2 Osasuna. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Alaves was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
Match analysis
Alaves vs Osasuna was played on Sunday, September 6, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 4). Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. Before kick-off, our model gave Alaves a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Osasuna 30%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.0%), ahead of 2-1 (9.2%) and 1-2 (7.2%).
Alaves are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Osasuna have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Alaves. On average Alaves score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Osasuna score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Alaves sit 5th with 7 points from 3 games, Osasuna 6th with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Alaves have averaged 1.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.66 for Osasuna.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Osasuna and 1 draw. The most recent ended Alaves 2-2 Osasuna (Apr 5, 2026). Alaves out or doubtful: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez and T. Martinez. Osasuna: J. Herrando, A. Oroz and V. Rosier. In double chance terms, "Alaves or draw" stands at 70%, "Osasuna or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alaves – Osasuna. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alaves 1-1 Osasuna | 10.0% |
| Alaves 2-1 Osasuna | 9.2% |
| Alaves 1-2 Osasuna | 7.2% |
| Alaves 1-0 Osasuna | 7.0% |
| Alaves 2-2 Osasuna | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.27 goals in total (1.84 for Alaves, 1.43 for Osasuna): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 64%. Everything points to an open game. Alaves keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Osasuna in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alaves expected goals | 1.84 |
| Osasuna expected goals | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 24% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Alaves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
Osasuna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Al Ain · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Napoli · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Osasuna | 6 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Alaves 2-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Osasuna 3-0 Alaves | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Alaves
- F. Garces (out)
- M. Rodriguez (out)
- T. Martinez (out)
Osasuna
- J. Herrando (out)
- A. Oroz (out)
- V. Rosier (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Real Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoSep 3, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 Real MadridSep 4, 2026
- Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico MadridSep 5, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderSep 5, 2026
- Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CorunaSep 5, 2026
- Valencia 0-5 BarcelonaSep 6, 2026
- Malaga 0-0 LevanteSep 6, 2026
- Espanyol 1-1 SevillaSep 6, 2026
- Getafe 1-1 Celta VigoSep 7, 2026
- Elche 2-3 Real SociedadSep 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Alaves vs Osasuna prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Alaves a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Osasuna 30%. Alaves are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Alaves vs Osasuna?
1-1 (10.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%), 1-0 (7.0%) and 2-2 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
The probability that both Alaves and Osasuna score is 64%. Alaves have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Osasuna 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Alaves vs Osasuna?
The model expects 3.27 goals (1.84 for Alaves, 1.43 for Osasuna). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is Alaves vs Osasuna played?
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 4. Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in?
Alaves: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Osasuna: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Osasuna and 1 draw. The most recent ended Alaves 2-2 Osasuna (Apr 5, 2026).
What was the Alaves vs Osasuna result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Alaves 5-2 Osasuna. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Alaves was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
How is the Alaves vs Osasuna prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.84 for Alaves, 1.43 for Osasuna) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.